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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jul 03, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   35 37 39 40 40 40 41 41 42 42 42
Closed Higher   19 17 18 19 19 21 25 28 26 20 23
Exceeded High   16 14 11 16 18 19 23 25 22 17 19
Scenario Percentage   84% 82% 61% 84% 95% 90% 92% 89% 85% 85% 83%
Avg Max Increase   9.19% 7.48% 10.21% 11.72% 11.30% 13.54% 11.61% 10.80% 9.91% 11.05% 6.56%
Max Increase   28.65% 20.96% 14.74% 22.27% 27.85% 37.68% 29.56% 24.96% 28.31% 18.91% 13.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 14 23 15 19 17 18 16 15 15 12
Avg Max Decline   -1.28% -1.38% -2.09% -1.85% -1.95% -3.33% -2.14% -3.25% -3.02% -2.97% -1.35%
Max Decline   -4.92% -7.41% -9.42% -8.41% -9.24% -10.57% -14.27% -11.02% -9.71% -10.55% -4.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 5 13 5 7 8 9 8 10 7 4
2025 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action       No   Yes No   Yes   Yes Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   35 37 39 40 40 40 41 41 42 42 42
Closed Lower   16 20 21 21 21 19 16 13 16 22 19
Penetrated Low   9 17 20 18 13 11 9 8 9 16 11
Scenario Percentage   56% 85% 95% 86% 62% 58% 56% 62% 56% 73% 58%
Avg Max Decline   13.43% 10.74% 11.59% 14.16% 15.11% 18.76% 14.71% 13.86% 10.11% 10.81% 8.51%
Max Decline   43.39% 45.17% 38.13% 31.33% 38.92% 53.09% 55.28% 31.92% 21.18% 18.58% 16.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 16 18 19 18 18 13 13 18 14 15
Avg Max Increase   -1.92% -2.24% -2.53% -2.02% -2.72% -3.48% -4.08% -5.99% -3.81% -1.47% -2.38%
Max Increase   -9.16% -14.20% -6.80% -11.92% -9.25% -10.85% -10.55% -20.34% -10.62% -4.03% -7.85%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 8 7 10 7 9 12 8 12 4 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes    
Action   Yes No   No     Yes   No    
High 76.27 73.01 69.72 73.18 70.20 69.72 73.77 71.65 69.90 70.43 63.47 78.40
Low 70.27 68.21 63.55 65.29 65.79 65.88 69.14 67.06 63.82 54.13 54.81 60.02
Close/Last 72.27 69.39 66.72 67.34 66.70 69.49 69.66 67.86 69.65 57.19 59.79 65.11

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