MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Crude Oil(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		33	35	37	38	38	38	39	39	40	40	40
Closed Higher		18	16	17	18	19	20	24	27	25	20	21
Exceeded High		15	14	10	16	18	18	22	24	22	17	16
Scenario Percentage		83%	88%	59%	89%	95%	90%	92%	89%	88%	85%	76%
Avg Max Increase		9.42%	7.48%	10.50%	11.72%	11.30%	13.82%	11.58%	11.02%	9.91%	10.92%	6.45%
Max Increase		28.65%	20.96%	14.74%	22.27%	27.85%	37.68%	29.56%	24.96%	28.31%	18.91%	13.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	14	25	15	19	16	18	16	15	14	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.38%	-1.38%	-2.43%	-1.85%	-1.95%	-3.24%	-2.19%	-3.36%	-3.02%	-2.33%	-1.40%
Max Decline		-4.92%	-7.41%	-9.42%	-8.41%	-9.24%	-10.57%	-14.27%	-11.02%	-9.71%	-7.11%	-4.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	5	14	5	7	8	9	9	10	5	4
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		33	35	37	38	38	38	39	39	40	40	40
Closed Lower		15	19	20	20	19	18	15	12	15	20	19
Penetrated Low		8	17	19	17	13	10	8	7	8	15	11
Scenario Percentage		53%	89%	95%	85%	68%	56%	53%	58%	53%	75%	58%
Avg Max Decline		13.27%	10.74%	11.65%	14.55%	15.11%	18.84%	14.62%	13.62%	10.11%	11.11%	8.32%
Max Decline		43.39%	45.17%	38.13%	31.33%	38.92%	53.09%	55.28%	31.92%	21.18%	18.58%	16.28%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	16	18	20	18	18	12	14	20	15	14
Avg Max Increase		-2.17%	-2.24%	-2.52%	-2.07%	-2.72%	-3.63%	-3.97%	-5.56%	-4.35%	-1.53%	-2.38%
Max Increase		-9.16%	-14.20%	-6.80%	-11.92%	-9.25%	-10.85%	-10.55%	-20.34%	-10.62%	-4.03%	-7.85%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	8	10	7	7	12	8	14	4	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes							Yes
Action		No			Yes							Yes
High	67.07	66.21	71.11	76.36	75.46	74.16	82.53	92.27	112.43	106.23	117.07	120.88
Low	60.63	58.79	63.88	69.32	62.28	61.11	71.70	80.33	86.76	91.61	95.47	101.53
Close/Last	66.65	64.72	69.90	73.89	63.78	72.17	81.66	86.78	95.08	100.88	111.91	105.76