MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		32	34	36	37	37	37	38	38	39	39	39
Closed Higher		18	15	16	18	18	19	23	26	24	19	21
Exceeded High		15	13	10	16	17	17	21	23	21	16	16
Scenario Percentage		83%	87%	63%	89%	94%	89%	91%	88%	88%	84%	76%
Avg Max Increase		9.42%	7.34%	10.50%	11.72%	10.33%	12.42%	10.72%	10.50%	9.44%	11.10%	6.45%
Max Increase		28.65%	20.96%	14.74%	22.27%	27.81%	29.04%	27.22%	24.96%	28.31%	18.91%	13.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	14	25	15	18	17	19	15	15	14	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.38%	-1.42%	-2.43%	-1.85%	-2.02%	-3.34%	-2.29%	-3.35%	-2.91%	-2.31%	-1.40%
Max Decline		-4.92%	-7.41%	-9.42%	-8.41%	-9.24%	-10.57%	-14.27%	-11.02%	-9.71%	-7.11%	-4.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	14	5	8	9	9	8	10	5	4
2021 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		32	34	36	37	37	37	38	38	39	39	39
Closed Lower		14	19	20	19	19	18	15	12	15	20	18
Penetrated Low		8	17	19	16	13	10	8	7	8	15	10
Scenario Percentage		57%	89%	95%	84%	68%	56%	53%	58%	53%	75%	56%
Avg Max Decline		13.27%	10.74%	11.65%	15.19%	15.11%	18.84%	14.62%	13.62%	10.11%	11.11%	7.71%
Max Decline		43.39%	45.17%	38.13%	31.33%	38.92%	53.09%	55.28%	31.92%	21.18%	18.58%	16.28%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	16	18	21	18	18	12	14	20	15	14
Avg Max Increase		-2.17%	-2.24%	-2.52%	-1.93%	-2.72%	-3.63%	-3.97%	-5.56%	-4.35%	-1.53%	-2.08%
Max Increase		-9.16%	-14.20%	-6.80%	-11.92%	-9.25%	-10.85%	-10.55%	-20.34%	-10.62%	-4.03%	-7.85%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	8	11	7	7	12	8	14	4	3
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes					Yes
Action			Yes	Yes					No
High	43.50	45.85	45.60	43.37	46.25	49.19	52.82	61.82	65.81	64.96	67.28	74.45
Low	40.78	43.11	40.29	37.68	37.08	44.64	47.39	50.64	56.92	57.42	61.36	66.18
Close/Last	42.90	44.90	42.64	38.58	45.65	48.37	51.00	59.46	58.69	63.14	66.10	73.47