MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		26	28	30	31	31	31	32	32	33	33	33
Closed Higher		14	12	13	14	14	16	20	23	20	16	17
Exceeded High		13	10	8	12	13	14	19	20	18	13	13
Scenario Percentage		93%	83%	62%	86%	93%	88%	95%	87%	90%	81%	76%
Avg Max Increase		8.99%	7.41%	10.06%	10.90%	10.03%	11.95%	10.63%	9.81%	8.90%	10.73%	7.14%
Max Increase		28.65%	20.96%	14.74%	22.27%	21.37%	26.54%	27.22%	24.96%	28.31%	18.91%	13.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	24	16	19	16	19	14	14	15	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.15%	-1.49%	-2.98%	-2.10%	-2.14%	-3.10%	-2.14%	-3.27%	-2.50%	-3.23%	-1.17%
Max Decline		-4.92%	-7.41%	-9.42%	-8.41%	-9.24%	-10.57%	-14.27%	-11.02%	-9.71%	-10.55%	-4.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	6	17	5	9	9	10	9	7	9	4
2015 Contract Condition								Yes		Yes
Action								Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		26	28	30	31	31	31	32	32	33	33	33
Closed Lower		12	16	17	17	17	15	12	9	13	17	16
Penetrated Low		7	14	16	14	12	8	7	5	7	12	9
Scenario Percentage		58%	88%	94%	82%	71%	53%	58%	56%	54%	71%	56%
Avg Max Decline		14.38%	11.31%	11.12%	14.13%	14.45%	15.41%	8.81%	9.89%	9.31%	11.94%	7.73%
Max Decline		43.39%	45.17%	38.13%	27.48%	38.92%	42.72%	28.07%	17.44%	21.18%	18.58%	16.28%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	19	21	18	17	11	14	20	15	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.40%	-1.88%	-2.71%	-1.60%	-2.70%	-3.47%	-3.40%	-2.57%	-4.29%	-1.56%	-2.07%
Max Increase		-9.16%	-14.20%	-6.80%	-11.92%	-9.25%	-10.85%	-10.55%	-7.75%	-10.62%	-4.03%	-7.85%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	9	9	12	8	6	14	7	12	5	3
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		No		Yes	Yes
High	96.78	93.85	92.52	88.01	80.56	70.13	58.43	59.24	57.19	61.48	64.12	62.22
Low	92.64	90.72	87.28	77.93	67.26	55.73	49.00	52.27	48.71	51.30	56.88	57.21
Close/Last	92.88	92.58	87.42	80.12	67.41	56.87	53.44	56.82	51.83	61.31	60.60	59.47