MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		25	27	29	30	30	30	31	31	32	32	32
Closed Higher		14	12	13	14	14	16	19	23	19	16	17
Exceeded High		13	10	8	12	13	14	18	20	17	13	13
Scenario Percentage		93%	83%	62%	86%	93%	88%	95%	87%	89%	81%	76%
Avg Max Increase		8.99%	7.41%	10.06%	10.90%	10.03%	11.95%	10.76%	9.81%	9.15%	10.74%	7.16%
Max Increase		28.65%	20.96%	14.74%	22.27%	21.37%	26.54%	27.22%	24.96%	28.31%	18.91%	13.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	24	16	19	16	18	14	14	16	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.15%	-1.49%	-2.98%	-2.10%	-2.14%	-3.10%	-1.46%	-3.27%	-2.54%	-3.23%	-1.17%
Max Decline		-4.92%	-7.41%	-9.42%	-8.41%	-9.24%	-10.57%	-5.16%	-11.02%	-9.71%	-10.55%	-4.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	6	17	5	9	9	10	9	7	9	4
2014 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		25	27	29	30	30	30	31	31	32	32	32
Closed Lower		11	15	16	16	16	14	12	8	13	16	15
Penetrated Low		6	13	15	13	11	7	7	5	7	11	8
Scenario Percentage		55%	87%	94%	81%	69%	50%	58%	63%	54%	69%	53%
Avg Max Decline		14.14%	10.40%	9.83%	13.11%	14.50%	16.35%	8.81%	9.89%	9.31%	11.41%	6.67%
Max Decline		43.39%	45.17%	38.13%	27.48%	38.92%	42.72%	28.07%	17.44%	21.18%	18.58%	16.28%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	19	20	17	17	11	14	20	15	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.64%	-1.97%	-2.85%	-1.42%	-2.70%	-2.41%	-3.40%	-2.57%	-4.29%	-1.46%	-2.43%
Max Increase		-9.16%	-14.20%	-6.80%	-11.92%	-9.25%	-6.44%	-10.55%	-7.75%	-10.62%	-4.03%	-7.85%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	9	9	12	8	4	14	7	12	5	3
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		No			No
High	94.88	97.70	97.39	97.82	94.23	96.63	95.46	99.61	101.12	102.04	103.58	107.50
Low	90.57	92.91	94.40	92.78	91.74	92.75	89.73	92.02	95.06	96.40	97.30	100.93
Close/Last	94.41	96.10	94.90	93.91	92.47	95.60	92.90	98.93	98.95	98.28	101.98	105.37