MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		23	25	27	28	28	28	29	29	30	30	30
Closed Higher		12	12	13	13	12	15	18	21	19	15	15
Exceeded High		11	10	8	11	11	13	17	18	17	12	12
Scenario Percentage		92%	83%	62%	85%	92%	87%	94%	86%	89%	80%	80%
Avg Max Increase		10.24%	7.41%	10.06%	11.15%	10.87%	12.79%	11.21%	10.61%	9.15%	11.17%	6.62%
Max Increase		28.65%	20.96%	14.74%	22.27%	21.37%	26.54%	27.22%	24.96%	28.31%	18.91%	12.17%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	24	15	21	18	19	14	14	13	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.05%	-1.49%	-2.98%	-1.98%	-1.93%	-3.29%	-1.32%	-3.42%	-2.54%	-2.51%	-1.23%
Max Decline		-4.92%	-7.41%	-9.42%	-8.41%	-9.24%	-10.57%	-5.16%	-11.02%	-9.71%	-7.11%	-4.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	6	17	5	10	10	9	10	7	7	4
2012 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		23	25	27	28	28	28	29	29	30	30	30
Closed Lower		11	13	14	15	16	13	11	8	11	15	15
Penetrated Low		6	11	13	12	11	7	6	5	7	11	8
Scenario Percentage		55%	85%	93%	80%	69%	54%	55%	63%	64%	73%	53%
Avg Max Decline		14.14%	11.41%	11.05%	13.96%	14.50%	16.35%	9.04%	9.89%	9.31%	11.41%	6.67%
Max Decline		43.39%	45.17%	38.13%	27.48%	38.92%	42.72%	28.07%	17.44%	21.18%	18.58%	16.28%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	19	21	17	17	9	14	20	15	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.64%	-1.89%	-3.01%	-1.16%	-2.70%	-2.41%	-3.12%	-2.57%	-4.29%	-1.46%	-2.43%
Max Increase		-9.16%	-14.20%	-6.80%	-11.92%	-9.25%	-6.44%	-10.55%	-7.75%	-10.62%	-4.03%	-7.85%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	9	9	11	8	4	11	7	12	5	3
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			No			Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	103.92	101.85	91.84	92.99	101.58	101.48	103.95	110.78	111.38	106.87	106.99	87.32
Low	100.10	81.99	80.88	77.65	88.79	93.40	98.71	97.37	103.52	102.29	86.19	77.28
Close/Last	100.10	91.37	81.09	92.26	99.49	99.15	100.04	108.30	104.40	105.55	86.85	84.96