MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	20	22	24	25	25	25	26	26	27	27	27
Closed Higher	12	11	11	10	11	13	15	19	16	15	14
Exceeded High	11	9	7	8	10	11	14	16	14	12	12
Scenario Percentage	92%	82%	64%	80%	91%	85%	93%	84%	88%	80%	86%
Avg Max Increase	10.24%	7.49%	10.05%	12.62%	10.76%	13.05%	11.58%	11.02%	10.83%	11.17%	6.64%
Max Increase	28.65%	20.96%	14.74%	22.27%	21.37%	26.54%	27.22%	24.96%	28.31%	18.91%	12.17%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	16	25	15	20	20	18	16	17	15	13
Avg Max Decline	-1.05%	-1.48%	-2.87%	-0.91%	-1.86%	-3.26%	-1.33%	-3.75%	-2.85%	-3.41%	-1.23%
Max Decline	-4.92%	-7.41%	-9.42%	-3.89%	-9.24%	-10.57%	-5.16%	-11.02%	-9.71%	-10.55%	-4.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline	10	5	20	3	10	10	10	10	8	9	4
2009 Contract Condition								Yes		Yes	Yes
Action								Yes		Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	20	22	24	25	25	25	26	26	27	27	27
Closed Lower	8	11	13	15	14	12	11	7	11	12	13
Penetrated Low	4	10	12	12	10	6	6	4	7	9	11
Scenario Percentage	50%	91%	92%	80%	71%	50%	55%	57%	64%	75%	85%
Avg Max Decline	15.90%	12.13%	11.83%	13.96%	14.68%	18.29%	9.04%	8.01%	9.31%	11.25%	13.86%
Max Decline	43.39%	45.17%	38.13%	27.48%	38.92%	42.72%	28.07%	13.22%	21.18%	18.58%	34.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	19	19	21	19	19	9	10	20	12	12
Avg Max Increase	-1.77%	-2.24%	-2.70%	-1.16%	-2.52%	-1.74%	-3.12%	-2.59%	-4.29%	-1.66%	-4.08%
Max Increase	-9.16%	-14.20%	-5.43%	-11.92%	-9.25%	-4.92%	-10.55%	-7.75%	-10.62%	-4.03%	-14.17%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	9	9	11	9	5	11	1	12	5	6
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		No
High	125.97	114.02	99.90	76.72	59.37	60.48	54.10	58.40	58.71	67.39	73.90
Low	113.90	92.94	66.52	56.22	45.02	49.28	43.42	45.00	50.76	52.66	65.92
Close/Last	117.51	102.54	72.77	62.08	55.36	52.07	49.82	53.93	53.40	67.07	69.89