MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	18	20	22	23	23	23	24	24	25	25	25
Closed Higher	12	10	10	10	10	13	14	18	15	13	12
Exceeded High	11	8	6	8	9	11	13	15	13	10	11
Scenario Percentage	92%	80%	60%	80%	90%	85%	93%	83%	87%	77%	92%
Avg Max Increase	10.24%	5.80%	10.50%	12.62%	10.93%	13.05%	11.23%	10.09%	9.49%	10.83%	6.75%
Max Increase	28.65%	13.52%	14.74%	22.27%	21.37%	26.54%	27.22%	21.31%	25.68%	18.91%	12.17%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	15	24	15	20	20	18	15	16	14	13
Avg Max Decline	-1.05%	-1.38%	-2.99%	-0.91%	-1.04%	-3.26%	-1.14%	-3.61%	-2.87%	-2.42%	-1.03%
Max Decline	-4.92%	-7.41%	-9.42%	-3.89%	-4.49%	-10.57%	-5.16%	-11.02%	-9.71%	-7.11%	-4.21%
Avg Days to Max Decline	10	5	17	3	9	10	9	9	9	7	4
2007 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				Yes			Yes	No			Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	18	20	22	23	23	23	24	24	25	25	25
Closed Lower	6	10	12	13	13	10	10	6	10	12	13
Penetrated Low	3	9	11	10	9	5	6	4	7	9	11
Scenario Percentage	50%	90%	92%	77%	69%	50%	60%	67%	70%	75%	85%
Avg Max Decline	6.74%	8.46%	9.44%	13.80%	13.92%	18.63%	9.04%	8.01%	9.31%	11.25%	13.86%
Max Decline	13.79%	20.29%	20.42%	26.13%	38.92%	42.72%	28.07%	13.22%	21.18%	18.58%	34.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline	11	19	18	21	19	19	9	10	20	12	12
Avg Max Increase	-3.34%	-2.78%	-2.45%	-0.64%	-1.78%	-1.31%	-3.12%	-2.59%	-4.29%	-1.66%	-3.98%
Max Increase	-9.16%	-14.20%	-4.39%	-2.31%	-6.55%	-4.92%	-10.55%	-7.75%	-10.62%	-4.03%	-13.09%
Avg Days to Max Increase	10	10	10	10	9	4	11	1	12	5	6
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No			Yes	Not Yet
High	80.76	74.28	67.85	68.25	68.83	62.74	65.40	70.00	69.55	68.75	71.06
Low	74.05	65.10	64.91	64.47	64.69	54.25	59.70	61.93	65.16	63.50	64.70
Close/Last	75.29	68.41	65.71	68.25	65.49	61.16	65.30	68.73	68.10	64.99	70.68