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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jul 14, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   37 38 40 40 41 41 42 42 42 43 43
Closed Higher   25 20 18 19 19 20 23 25 27 26 21
Exceeded High   22 16 17 12 16 20 21 23 25 23 16
Scenario Percentage   88% 80% 94% 63% 84% 100% 91% 92% 93% 88% 76%
Avg Max Increase   7.70% 9.62% 6.73% 9.66% 12.20% 11.03% 13.17% 12.20% 10.58% 9.57% 10.15%
Max Increase   38.98% 29.27% 21.25% 15.58% 22.63% 29.12% 40.79% 31.23% 26.09% 26.92% 27.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 13 12 21 15 17 17 17 14 10 13
Avg Max Decline   -1.74% -1.24% -2.30% -1.94% -1.99% -2.22% -3.31% -2.40% -3.19% -2.43% -1.62%
Max Decline   -12.27% -5.67% -12.09% -8.73% -8.47% -8.56% -11.08% -14.39% -11.47% -7.16% -4.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 8 4 9 5 8 8 9 9 6 3
2025 Contract Condition         Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes
Action         No   Yes No   Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   37 38 40 40 41 41 42 42 42 43 43
Closed Lower   12 18 22 21 22 21 19 17 15 16 22
Penetrated Low   8 12 17 20 18 13 11 9 9 9 15
Scenario Percentage   67% 67% 77% 95% 82% 62% 58% 53% 60% 56% 68%
Avg Max Decline   13.05% 12.55% 11.06% 12.04% 14.74% 15.76% 19.63% 17.77% 14.77% 10.81% 7.64%
Max Decline   25.80% 44.30% 46.58% 39.56% 32.04% 40.73% 55.60% 61.82% 37.63% 28.62% 24.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 14 16 18 18 19 18 14 13 14 12
Avg Max Increase   -1.67% -1.99% -2.54% -2.43% -2.59% -3.54% -3.55% -4.88% -6.49% -3.92% -1.35%
Max Increase   -9.32% -10.99% -13.94% -7.00% -12.54% -11.80% -11.46% -11.25% -27.05% -10.98% -3.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 9 9 8 9 8 9 15 8 9 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes Yes No   No     Yes   Not Yet  
High 75.65 76.83 73.39 69.99 73.56 70.56 70.08 74.61 72.13 70.58 71.10 64.19
Low 69.57 70.61 68.46 63.56 65.34 65.92 66.05 69.65 67.46 64.16 54.33 54.95
Close/Last 74.81 72.62 69.63 66.82 67.53 66.87 69.84 70.21 68.38 70.32 57.62 60.79

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