MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Crude Oil(NYM) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		31	32	34	34	35	35	36	36	36	37	37
Closed Higher		20	18	16	15	16	16	19	22	24	23	17
Exceeded High		19	15	16	10	14	16	18	20	22	21	12
Scenario Percentage		95%	83%	100%	67%	88%	100%	95%	91%	92%	91%	71%
Avg Max Increase		7.76%	9.85%	6.57%	9.36%	11.56%	9.31%	10.95%	11.30%	10.64%	8.81%	8.56%
Max Increase		38.98%	29.27%	21.25%	15.58%	22.63%	22.30%	28.77%	28.56%	26.09%	26.92%	14.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	13	12	21	15	17	17	18	14	10	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.16%	-1.33%	-2.39%	-2.36%	-2.11%	-2.46%	-3.44%	-2.54%	-3.32%	-2.24%	-1.67%
Max Decline		-7.82%	-5.67%	-12.09%	-8.73%	-8.47%	-8.56%	-11.08%	-14.39%	-11.47%	-7.16%	-4.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	8	4	10	5	9	9	9	9	5	4
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		31	32	34	34	35	35	36	36	36	37	37
Closed Lower		11	14	18	19	19	19	17	14	12	13	20
Penetrated Low		7	9	15	18	16	13	9	6	7	8	14
Scenario Percentage		64%	64%	83%	95%	84%	68%	53%	43%	58%	62%	70%
Avg Max Decline		13.13%	13.49%	11.35%	12.54%	15.81%	15.76%	15.79%	10.27%	11.37%	10.81%	7.77%
Max Decline		25.80%	44.30%	46.58%	39.56%	32.04%	40.73%	43.39%	27.71%	17.47%	28.63%	24.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	14	18	20	20	19	18	12	12	15	13
Avg Max Increase		-1.75%	-1.39%	-2.67%	-2.34%	-2.57%	-3.54%	-3.45%	-4.46%	-3.13%	-4.47%	-1.40%
Max Increase		-9.32%	-10.57%	-13.94%	-7.00%	-12.54%	-11.80%	-11.46%	-11.25%	-9.27%	-10.98%	-3.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	9	10	9	10	8	5	16	7	10	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes	No					Yes
High	65.83	66.22	67.39	71.88	75.20	66.03	55.64	56.31	59.19	60.98	66.44	64.01
Low	60.55	62.06	62.09	65.03	65.68	50.55	44.20	46.35	53.20	55.80	60.39	53.05
Close/Last	65.59	64.75	66.91	71.51	66.06	51.66	47.30	54.86	58.49	60.40	63.98	53.50