MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		28	29	31	31	32	32	33	33	33	34	34
Closed Higher		19	16	13	14	14	14	17	20	22	21	17
Exceeded High		18	13	13	9	12	14	16	19	20	20	12
Scenario Percentage		95%	81%	100%	64%	86%	100%	94%	95%	91%	95%	71%
Avg Max Increase		7.94%	9.48%	6.42%	9.22%	11.42%	9.85%	11.38%	11.18%	10.55%	9.00%	8.86%
Max Increase		38.98%	29.27%	21.25%	15.58%	22.63%	22.30%	28.77%	28.56%	26.09%	26.92%	15.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	13	20	16	17	16	18	13	10	14
Avg Max Decline		-0.91%	-1.08%	-2.63%	-2.53%	-2.25%	-2.63%	-3.03%	-2.43%	-3.43%	-2.22%	-1.74%
Max Decline		-7.82%	-5.67%	-12.09%	-8.73%	-8.47%	-8.56%	-11.08%	-14.39%	-11.47%	-7.16%	-4.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	5	11	5	10	8	9	10	5	4
2016 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No		No					Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		28	29	31	31	32	32	33	33	33	34	34
Closed Lower		9	13	18	17	18	18	16	13	11	12	17
Penetrated Low		6	9	15	16	15	13	8	6	6	7	11
Scenario Percentage		67%	69%	83%	94%	83%	72%	50%	46%	55%	58%	65%
Avg Max Decline		14.66%	13.49%	11.35%	11.60%	15.90%	15.76%	16.23%	10.27%	10.91%	11.12%	9.11%
Max Decline		25.80%	44.30%	46.58%	39.56%	32.04%	40.73%	43.39%	27.71%	17.47%	28.63%	24.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		25	14	18	20	19	19	17	12	13	16	16
Avg Max Increase		-1.93%	-1.39%	-2.67%	-2.57%	-2.23%	-3.54%	-3.55%	-4.46%	-2.67%	-4.42%	-1.65%
Max Increase		-9.32%	-10.57%	-13.94%	-7.00%	-12.54%	-11.80%	-11.46%	-11.25%	-9.27%	-10.98%	-4.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	9	10	10	10	8	6	16	6	8	5
2016 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	No	No
High	64.00	61.15	54.41	53.19	53.75	52.25	46.98	42.64	39.39	43.69	47.54	50.21
Low	60.24	52.43	43.44	48.31	47.29	45.32	39.50	31.61	33.14	37.32	37.50	43.65
Close/Last	61.99	52.83	54.38	49.04	50.65	46.51	41.33	38.99	37.79	40.69	46.69	49.10