MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		27	28	30	30	31	31	32	32	32	33	33
Closed Higher		19	15	13	13	14	14	17	20	21	20	16
Exceeded High		18	13	13	9	12	14	16	19	19	19	11
Scenario Percentage		95%	87%	100%	69%	86%	100%	94%	95%	90%	95%	69%
Avg Max Increase		7.94%	9.48%	6.42%	9.22%	11.42%	9.85%	11.38%	11.18%	9.87%	8.96%	9.30%
Max Increase		38.98%	29.27%	21.25%	15.58%	22.63%	22.30%	28.77%	28.56%	26.09%	26.92%	15.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	13	20	16	17	16	18	13	10	15
Avg Max Decline		-0.91%	-1.08%	-2.63%	-2.53%	-2.25%	-2.63%	-3.03%	-2.43%	-3.20%	-2.00%	-1.64%
Max Decline		-7.82%	-5.67%	-12.09%	-8.73%	-8.47%	-8.56%	-11.08%	-14.39%	-11.47%	-7.16%	-4.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	5	11	5	10	8	9	10	5	5
2015 Contract Condition									Yes		Yes
Action									Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		27	28	30	30	31	31	32	32	32	33	33
Closed Lower		8	13	17	17	17	17	15	12	11	12	17
Penetrated Low		5	9	14	16	14	12	8	6	6	7	11
Scenario Percentage		63%	69%	82%	94%	82%	71%	53%	50%	55%	58%	65%
Avg Max Decline		14.03%	13.49%	11.62%	11.60%	14.75%	15.11%	16.23%	10.27%	10.91%	11.12%	9.23%
Max Decline		25.80%	44.30%	46.58%	39.56%	28.83%	40.73%	43.39%	27.71%	17.47%	28.63%	24.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		25	14	18	20	19	18	17	12	13	16	16
Avg Max Increase		-2.61%	-1.39%	-2.18%	-2.57%	-2.32%	-3.58%	-3.55%	-4.46%	-2.67%	-4.42%	-1.65%
Max Increase		-9.32%	-10.57%	-13.94%	-7.00%	-12.54%	-11.80%	-11.46%	-11.25%	-9.27%	-10.98%	-4.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	9	10	10	11	8	6	16	6	8	5
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		No		Not Yet
High	97.31	97.37	94.06	92.80	88.65	80.60	70.20	57.31	58.37	56.20	60.91	63.62
Low	92.83	93.01	90.85	87.50	77.70	66.95	55.19	47.87	50.96	47.46	50.23	56.51
Close/Last	97.02	93.27	92.87	87.68	80.16	67.26	56.26	52.37	55.44	50.78	60.71	60.30