MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		26	27	29	29	30	30	31	31	31	32	32
Closed Higher		19	15	13	13	14	14	17	19	21	19	16
Exceeded High		18	13	13	9	12	14	16	18	19	18	11
Scenario Percentage		95%	87%	100%	69%	86%	100%	94%	95%	90%	95%	69%
Avg Max Increase		7.94%	9.48%	6.42%	9.22%	11.42%	9.85%	11.38%	11.25%	9.87%	9.06%	8.86%
Max Increase		38.98%	29.27%	21.25%	15.58%	22.63%	22.30%	28.77%	28.56%	26.09%	26.92%	14.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	13	20	16	17	16	17	13	10	12
Avg Max Decline		-0.91%	-1.08%	-2.63%	-2.53%	-2.25%	-2.63%	-3.03%	-1.76%	-3.20%	-2.00%	-1.58%
Max Decline		-7.82%	-5.67%	-12.09%	-8.73%	-8.47%	-8.56%	-11.08%	-5.36%	-11.47%	-7.16%	-4.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	5	11	5	10	8	9	10	5	4
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No				Yes		Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		26	27	29	29	30	30	31	31	31	32	32
Closed Lower		7	12	16	16	16	16	14	12	10	12	16
Penetrated Low		4	8	13	15	13	11	7	6	6	7	11
Scenario Percentage		57%	67%	81%	94%	81%	69%	50%	50%	60%	58%	69%
Avg Max Decline		15.99%	13.14%	10.69%	10.30%	13.67%	15.13%	17.21%	10.27%	10.91%	10.75%	8.12%
Max Decline		25.80%	44.30%	46.58%	39.56%	28.64%	40.73%	43.39%	27.71%	17.47%	28.63%	24.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		24	14	17	19	19	18	17	12	13	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-3.06%	-1.57%	-2.26%	-2.71%	-2.16%	-3.73%	-2.42%	-4.46%	-2.67%	-4.42%	-1.39%
Max Increase		-9.32%	-10.57%	-13.94%	-7.00%	-12.54%	-11.80%	-6.85%	-11.25%	-9.27%	-10.98%	-3.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	10	11	10	12	9	4	16	6	8	4
2014 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes		No		No	Not Yet
High	93.59	95.61	99.49	98.28	98.67	94.72	97.59	96.75	100.75	102.27	103.11	104.50
Low	88.01	90.41	93.93	95.10	93.36	91.97	93.15	90.40	92.85	95.73	97.30	98.10
Close/Last	90.26	95.09	96.95	95.62	94.49	92.83	96.45	93.87	99.96	99.90	99.11	102.71