MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		24	25	27	27	28	28	29	29	29	30	30
Closed Higher		17	13	13	13	13	12	16	18	20	19	15
Exceeded High		16	12	13	9	11	12	15	17	18	18	10
Scenario Percentage		94%	92%	100%	69%	85%	100%	94%	94%	90%	95%	67%
Avg Max Increase		7.96%	10.05%	6.42%	9.22%	11.69%	10.58%	12.09%	11.73%	10.39%	9.06%	9.26%
Max Increase		38.98%	29.27%	21.25%	15.58%	22.63%	22.30%	28.77%	28.56%	26.09%	26.92%	14.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	13	20	15	17	16	17	13	10	12
Avg Max Decline		-0.90%	-1.06%	-2.63%	-2.53%	-2.14%	-2.50%	-3.09%	-1.62%	-3.31%	-2.00%	-1.62%
Max Decline		-7.82%	-5.67%	-12.09%	-8.73%	-8.47%	-8.56%	-11.08%	-5.36%	-11.47%	-7.16%	-4.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	9	5	11	4	11	9	9	11	5	4
2012 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		24	25	27	27	28	28	29	29	29	30	30
Closed Lower		7	12	14	14	15	16	13	11	9	10	15
Penetrated Low		4	8	11	13	12	11	7	5	6	7	11
Scenario Percentage		57%	67%	79%	93%	80%	69%	54%	45%	67%	70%	73%
Avg Max Decline		15.99%	13.14%	11.68%	11.54%	14.59%	15.13%	17.21%	10.83%	10.91%	10.75%	8.12%
Max Decline		25.80%	44.30%	46.58%	39.56%	28.64%	40.73%	43.39%	27.71%	17.47%	28.63%	24.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		24	14	18	19	20	18	17	11	13	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-3.06%	-1.57%	-2.24%	-2.87%	-1.91%	-3.73%	-2.42%	-4.25%	-2.67%	-4.42%	-1.39%
Max Increase		-9.32%	-10.57%	-13.94%	-7.00%	-12.54%	-11.80%	-6.85%	-11.25%	-9.27%	-10.98%	-3.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	10	10	10	10	9	4	12	6	8	4
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes			No			Yes		Yes
High	104.95	103.51	101.66	91.79	93.31	101.60	101.71	104.07	110.85	111.49	106.48	106.77
Low	94.88	98.81	81.87	79.80	77.40	89.40	93.45	98.79	97.05	103.15	101.77	85.86
Close/Last	100.17	99.82	91.21	80.84	92.43	99.87	99.38	99.90	108.25	104.03	105.26	86.53