MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	21	22	24	24	25	25	26	26	26	27	27
Closed Higher	15	13	12	11	10	11	14	15	18	16	15
Exceeded High	14	12	12	8	8	11	13	14	16	15	10
Scenario Percentage	93%	92%	100%	73%	80%	100%	93%	93%	89%	94%	67%
Avg Max Increase	8.52%	10.05%	6.38%	9.12%	13.29%	10.45%	12.14%	12.26%	10.87%	10.78%	9.74%
Max Increase	38.98%	29.27%	21.25%	15.58%	22.63%	22.30%	28.77%	28.56%	26.09%	26.92%	15.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	15	14	22	14	17	18	17	15	12	14
Avg Max Decline	-1.25%	-1.06%	-2.72%	-2.44%	-1.18%	-2.46%	-2.99%	-1.70%	-3.58%	-2.18%	-1.70%
Max Decline	-7.82%	-5.67%	-12.09%	-8.73%	-3.60%	-8.56%	-11.08%	-5.36%	-11.47%	-7.16%	-4.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline	11	9	3	13	3	11	9	9	10	6	5
2009 Contract Condition									Yes		Yes
Action									Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	21	22	24	24	25	25	26	26	26	27	27
Closed Lower	6	9	12	13	15	14	12	11	8	10	12
Penetrated Low	3	6	10	12	12	10	6	5	5	7	11
Scenario Percentage	50%	67%	83%	92%	80%	71%	50%	45%	62%	70%	92%
Avg Max Decline	14.64%	13.88%	12.42%	12.36%	14.59%	15.37%	19.32%	10.83%	9.60%	11.12%	17.89%
Max Decline	25.80%	44.30%	46.58%	39.56%	28.64%	40.73%	43.39%	27.71%	16.29%	28.62%	52.39%
Avg Days To Max Decline	23	14	19	19	20	19	19	11	10	16	13
Avg Max Increase	-3.46%	-1.59%	-2.43%	-2.53%	-1.91%	-3.58%	-1.69%	-4.25%	-2.68%	-4.42%	-3.45%
Max Increase	-9.32%	-10.57%	-13.94%	-5.19%	-12.54%	-11.80%	-5.35%	-11.25%	-9.27%	-10.98%	-12.35%
Avg Days to Max Increase	17	9	11	10	10	9	4	12	2	8	7
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet
High	147.40	126.15	113.84	99.62	76.00	60.24	60.72	53.21	57.29	57.50	66.64
Low	123.81	114.00	92.67	65.44	54.63	43.67	48.25	42.19	44.34	49.07	51.55
Close/Last	124.90	117.48	102.27	72.25	61.20	54.31	51.17	48.98	52.85	52.28	66.31