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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   37 39 41 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 43
Closed Higher   22 24 22 19 19 19 20 24 25 27 26
Exceeded High   21 22 16 17 12 16 20 22 22 25 18
Scenario Percentage   95% 92% 73% 89% 63% 84% 100% 92% 88% 93% 69%
Avg Max Increase   7.48% 8.38% 10.60% 7.30% 10.09% 12.76% 11.53% 13.50% 13.27% 10.36% 7.21%
Max Increase   19.13% 43.12% 30.49% 22.29% 16.58% 23.16% 30.95% 45.35% 33.96% 24.43% 28.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 20 15 13 23 15 17 16 16 12 12
Avg Max Decline   -2.02% -2.73% -1.87% -2.24% -2.38% -2.19% -2.41% -3.38% -2.52% -3.05% -2.10%
Max Decline   -12.23% -12.62% -6.96% -11.29% -8.76% -8.80% -9.65% -11.76% -14.69% -10.69% -6.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 11 7 4 8 5 9 7 8 6 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes       No   Yes No   Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   37 39 41 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 43
Closed Lower   15 15 19 22 22 22 22 18 17 15 17
Penetrated Low   11 11 11 17 21 18 13 10 9 11 8
Scenario Percentage   73% 73% 58% 77% 95% 82% 59% 56% 53% 73% 47%
Avg Max Decline   9.06% 12.17% 13.96% 11.76% 12.45% 15.39% 16.34% 21.58% 20.71% 17.89% 7.43%
Max Decline   30.84% 26.05% 44.79% 47.55% 40.74% 33.14% 42.29% 58.22% 85.59% 73.48% 18.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 19 16 16 19 18 18 17 13 12 12
Avg Max Increase   -0.94% -2.22% -2.56% -2.78% -2.66% -2.74% -3.90% -3.45% -5.13% -6.62% -1.70%
Max Increase   -3.83% -10.14% -13.33% -14.59% -7.31% -12.88% -12.23% -11.81% -11.53% -35.25% -6.80%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 12 8 9 6 9 8 11 15 8 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes
Action     Yes Yes No   No     Yes   Not Yet
High 75.00 76.25 77.43 73.79 70.35 74.53 70.83 70.42 75.51 72.56 71.24 71.76
Low 71.81 69.60 70.77 68.31 63.51 65.27 65.93 66.18 70.15 67.81 64.49 54.67
Close/Last 73.12 75.26 72.98 69.89 66.93 67.70 67.03 70.17 70.78 68.87 70.95 58.21

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