MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Crude Oil(NYM) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		31	33	35	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	37
Closed Higher		17	20	20	17	15	16	16	20	22	24	23
Exceeded High		16	18	15	16	10	14	16	19	19	23	16
Scenario Percentage		94%	90%	75%	94%	67%	88%	100%	95%	86%	96%	70%
Avg Max Increase		7.42%	8.72%	10.86%	7.17%	9.82%	12.12%	9.70%	11.15%	12.35%	11.10%	7.40%
Max Increase		19.13%	43.12%	30.49%	22.29%	16.58%	23.16%	24.05%	31.02%	29.08%	27.52%	28.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	20	15	12	24	15	17	17	17	13	12
Avg Max Decline		-2.18%	-1.71%	-1.98%	-2.32%	-2.79%	-2.32%	-2.66%	-3.50%	-2.65%	-3.23%	-1.91%
Max Decline		-12.23%	-8.47%	-6.96%	-11.29%	-8.76%	-8.80%	-9.65%	-11.76%	-14.69%	-10.69%	-6.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	10	8	4	9	6	10	8	8	6	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		31	33	35	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	37
Closed Lower		14	13	15	18	20	19	20	16	14	12	14
Penetrated Low		10	9	8	15	19	16	13	8	6	9	7
Scenario Percentage		71%	69%	53%	83%	95%	84%	65%	50%	43%	75%	50%
Avg Max Decline		8.84%	11.33%	15.45%	12.08%	12.90%	16.49%	16.34%	17.37%	10.66%	12.00%	7.88%
Max Decline		30.84%	26.05%	44.79%	47.55%	40.74%	33.14%	42.29%	44.01%	28.16%	21.58%	18.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	19	16	18	20	19	18	16	12	12	12
Avg Max Increase		-0.65%	-2.45%	-1.73%	-2.91%	-2.58%	-2.71%	-3.90%	-3.31%	-4.75%	-3.06%	-2.00%
Max Increase		-3.75%	-10.14%	-11.15%	-14.59%	-7.31%	-12.88%	-12.23%	-11.81%	-11.53%	-9.41%	-6.80%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	11	8	10	6	11	8	7	15	8	3
2019 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	Yes	No
High	67.44	66.45	67.03	67.79	72.30	75.65	66.11	55.53	56.10	58.76	60.87	66.60
Low	61.18	60.86	62.37	62.22	65.16	65.59	50.26	43.80	45.92	52.71	55.31	60.36
Close/Last	63.31	66.09	65.07	67.26	71.84	66.05	51.60	46.93	54.60	58.06	60.28	63.91