MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		20	22	24	24	24	24	25	25	25	25	26
Closed Higher		10	15	15	13	11	10	11	15	15	17	16
Exceeded High		10	13	12	12	8	8	11	14	13	16	11
Scenario Percentage		100%	87%	80%	92%	73%	80%	100%	93%	87%	94%	69%
Avg Max Increase		8.02%	9.72%	11.22%	7.07%	9.59%	14.22%	10.90%	12.26%	13.71%	11.11%	8.62%
Max Increase		19.13%	43.12%	30.49%	22.29%	16.58%	23.16%	24.05%	31.02%	29.08%	24.43%	28.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	22	17	14	24	14	17	17	17	13	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.07%	-1.71%	-1.79%	-2.57%	-2.82%	-1.27%	-2.65%	-3.02%	-1.75%	-3.10%	-1.48%
Max Decline		-3.93%	-8.47%	-6.96%	-11.29%	-8.76%	-3.32%	-9.65%	-11.76%	-5.86%	-10.69%	-6.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	12	9	3	11	3	10	8	7	6	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		20	22	24	24	24	24	25	25	25	25	26
Closed Lower		10	7	9	11	13	14	14	10	10	8	10
Penetrated Low		7	3	4	9	12	11	9	4	5	7	6
Scenario Percentage		70%	43%	44%	82%	92%	79%	64%	40%	50%	88%	60%
Avg Max Decline		4.81%	7.48%	9.87%	9.46%	10.36%	13.94%	15.05%	23.19%	11.29%	11.52%	6.96%
Max Decline		10.23%	12.07%	17.33%	22.33%	22.50%	28.51%	42.29%	44.01%	28.16%	21.58%	18.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	21	15	19	20	18	19	17	11	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-0.63%	-4.64%	-3.19%	-3.13%	-2.53%	-2.39%	-2.95%	-0.28%	-4.58%	-2.67%	-2.34%
Max Increase		-2.43%	-10.14%	-11.15%	-14.59%	-5.92%	-12.88%	-8.76%	-1.14%	-11.53%	-9.41%	-6.80%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	25	11	12	8	12	9	7	12	4	3
2008 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes		Yes
Action				No			Yes		No
High	72.05	72.97	74.19	74.01	78.35	88.83	94.10	95.29	97.88	102.19	109.02	119.93
Low	68.53	69.40	71.86	67.50	70.32	74.99	86.20	85.00	84.96	86.26	97.92	99.10
Close/Last	69.37	72.33	73.75	70.43	76.95	88.83	86.71	94.03	91.31	100.97	101.09	113.46