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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jul 07, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   38 39 40 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 42
Closed Higher   19 22 24 23 20 19 18 20 23 25 27
Exceeded High   15 20 21 18 17 12 16 20 21 22 22
Scenario Percentage   79% 91% 88% 78% 85% 63% 89% 100% 91% 88% 81%
Avg Max Increase   9.40% 7.89% 8.98% 9.79% 7.36% 10.54% 13.25% 12.17% 14.53% 14.43% 8.33%
Max Increase   19.67% 19.00% 47.75% 33.91% 22.30% 17.51% 24.18% 33.13% 48.65% 43.26% 25.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 18 21 14 14 23 14 17 16 13 13
Avg Max Decline   -1.37% -1.79% -1.96% -1.62% -2.31% -2.41% -2.08% -2.61% -3.67% -2.73% -2.18%
Max Decline   -7.04% -11.71% -12.77% -7.53% -11.42% -9.01% -8.59% -10.12% -12.77% -15.55% -8.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 7 10 6 5 9 5 9 9 7 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes
Action     Yes       No   Yes No   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   38 39 40 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 42
Closed Lower   19 17 16 18 21 22 24 22 19 17 15
Penetrated Low   14 13 11 11 16 21 20 13 11 9 6
Scenario Percentage   74% 76% 69% 61% 76% 95% 83% 59% 58% 53% 40%
Avg Max Decline   7.48% 9.18% 12.24% 13.83% 12.13% 12.92% 15.33% 17.10% 21.11% 20.08% 15.77%
Max Decline   17.40% 31.17% 26.20% 45.01% 48.41% 42.05% 34.38% 44.68% 62.78% 77.73% 51.12%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 15 19 16 16 18 17 19 17 14 9
Avg Max Increase   -0.97% -1.06% -1.70% -1.92% -2.47% -2.71% -2.67% -3.96% -3.36% -5.35% -9.47%
Max Increase   -6.86% -6.60% -11.04% -11.54% -13.79% -7.53% -13.18% -12.22% -12.00% -11.53% -42.24%
Avg Days to Max Increase   3 6 12 8 11 7 9 10 10 14 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes Yes No   No     Yes  
High 78.14 75.13 76.61 77.75 74.15 70.50 74.76 71.08 70.75 76.57 73.17 71.83
Low 74.49 72.37 69.85 71.05 68.66 63.72 65.34 66.04 66.29 70.55 68.10 64.85
Close/Last 75.29 73.44 75.70 73.33 70.15 67.02 67.86 67.17 70.50 71.38 69.34 71.48

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