MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Crude Oil(NYM) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		33	34	35	36	36	36	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		16	18	21	21	18	16	17	17	19	22	24
Exceeded High		12	16	18	17	16	11	15	17	18	19	20
Scenario Percentage		75%	89%	86%	81%	89%	69%	88%	100%	95%	86%	83%
Avg Max Increase		8.90%	7.75%	9.20%	9.95%	7.22%	10.75%	12.98%	10.07%	11.98%	13.57%	8.80%
Max Increase		19.67%	19.00%	47.75%	33.91%	22.30%	17.51%	24.18%	27.19%	32.58%	43.26%	25.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	20	21	14	14	24	14	16	17	13	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.37%	-2.02%	-1.34%	-1.72%	-2.39%	-2.61%	-2.04%	-2.87%	-3.83%	-2.87%	-2.06%
Max Decline		-7.04%	-11.71%	-8.10%	-7.53%	-11.42%	-9.01%	-8.59%	-10.12%	-12.77%	-15.55%	-8.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	9	6	5	9	5	10	10	8	2
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		33	34	35	36	36	36	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		17	16	14	15	18	20	20	20	18	15	13
Penetrated Low		12	12	9	9	15	19	17	13	10	7	6
Scenario Percentage		71%	75%	64%	60%	83%	95%	85%	65%	56%	47%	46%
Avg Max Decline		8.21%	9.01%	11.40%	14.23%	11.99%	13.39%	16.53%	17.10%	21.33%	18.20%	9.83%
Max Decline		17.40%	31.17%	26.20%	45.01%	48.41%	42.05%	34.38%	44.68%	62.78%	61.48%	19.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	19	16	17	20	19	19	17	14	8
Avg Max Increase		-0.56%	-0.90%	-1.83%	-2.26%	-2.48%	-2.63%	-2.64%	-3.96%	-3.49%	-5.55%	-9.47%
Max Increase		-2.10%	-6.60%	-11.04%	-11.54%	-13.79%	-7.53%	-13.18%	-12.22%	-12.00%	-11.53%	-42.24%
Avg Days to Max Increase		2	6	10	9	11	7	10	10	8	13	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
High	62.59	61.44	57.60	58.98	56.62	58.00	55.92	57.58	61.33	64.39	54.82	48.82
Low	59.45	52.31	50.36	53.80	49.91	51.08	49.67	53.26	54.55	51.18	44.07	19.27
Close/Last	61.21	52.73	56.53	57.15	52.79	52.12	53.31	54.45	59.97	51.77	44.94	20.48