MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Crude Oil(NYM) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		32	33	34	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		16	17	20	21	18	15	16	16	19	22	24
Exceeded High		12	15	18	17	16	10	14	16	18	19	20
Scenario Percentage		75%	88%	90%	81%	89%	67%	88%	100%	95%	86%	83%
Avg Max Increase		8.90%	7.97%	9.20%	9.95%	7.22%	10.32%	12.60%	10.24%	11.98%	13.62%	8.84%
Max Increase		19.67%	19.00%	47.75%	33.91%	22.30%	17.51%	24.18%	27.19%	32.58%	43.26%	25.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	21	21	14	14	24	15	17	17	13	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.37%	-1.95%	-1.34%	-1.72%	-2.39%	-2.86%	-2.19%	-2.89%	-3.83%	-2.87%	-2.30%
Max Decline		-7.04%	-11.71%	-8.10%	-7.53%	-11.42%	-9.01%	-8.59%	-10.12%	-12.77%	-15.55%	-8.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	9	6	5	10	5	10	10	8	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		32	33	34	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		16	16	14	14	17	20	20	20	17	14	12
Penetrated Low		11	12	9	8	14	19	17	13	9	6	5
Scenario Percentage		69%	75%	64%	57%	82%	95%	85%	65%	53%	43%	42%
Avg Max Decline		8.55%	9.01%	11.40%	15.27%	12.51%	13.39%	16.53%	17.10%	16.73%	10.98%	8.70%
Max Decline		17.40%	31.17%	26.20%	45.01%	48.41%	42.05%	34.38%	44.68%	45.53%	28.26%	19.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	16	19	18	18	20	19	19	15	13	7
Avg Max Increase		-0.45%	-0.90%	-1.83%	-1.31%	-2.57%	-2.63%	-2.64%	-3.96%	-3.22%	-5.04%	-2.91%
Max Increase		-2.10%	-6.60%	-11.04%	-11.54%	-13.79%	-7.53%	-13.18%	-12.22%	-12.00%	-11.53%	-9.40%
Avg Days to Max Increase		2	6	10	8	12	7	10	10	6	14	2
2019 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes			Yes	Yes	No
High	63.43	67.72	66.81	67.36	68.08	72.47	75.80	66.02	55.36	55.85	58.28	60.73
Low	58.28	61.70	61.15	62.68	62.47	65.52	65.53	50.16	43.46	45.52	52.16	54.87
Close/Last	62.98	63.70	66.53	65.36	67.57	72.09	65.99	51.50	46.51	54.31	57.61	60.14