MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		31	32	33	34	34	34	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher		15	16	20	20	17	15	16	16	18	21	23
Exceeded High		12	14	18	16	15	10	14	16	17	18	18
Scenario Percentage		80%	88%	90%	80%	88%	67%	88%	100%	94%	86%	78%
Avg Max Increase		8.90%	8.38%	9.20%	9.81%	7.36%	10.32%	12.60%	10.24%	11.99%	12.78%	7.77%
Max Increase		19.67%	19.00%	47.75%	33.91%	22.30%	17.51%	24.18%	27.19%	32.58%	38.62%	19.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	20	21	15	15	24	15	17	16	13	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.37%	-1.66%	-1.34%	-1.64%	-2.55%	-2.86%	-2.19%	-2.89%	-3.83%	-2.76%	-1.84%
Max Decline		-7.04%	-11.71%	-8.10%	-7.53%	-11.42%	-9.01%	-8.59%	-10.12%	-12.77%	-15.55%	-6.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	9	6	5	10	5	10	10	8	2
2018 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		31	32	33	34	34	34	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower		16	16	13	14	17	19	19	19	17	14	12
Penetrated Low		11	12	8	8	14	18	16	13	9	6	5
Scenario Percentage		69%	75%	62%	57%	82%	95%	84%	68%	53%	43%	42%
Avg Max Decline		8.55%	9.01%	12.28%	15.27%	12.51%	12.23%	16.59%	17.10%	16.73%	10.98%	8.70%
Max Decline		17.40%	31.17%	26.20%	45.01%	48.41%	42.05%	34.38%	44.68%	45.53%	28.26%	19.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	16	20	18	18	19	18	19	15	13	7
Avg Max Increase		-0.45%	-0.90%	-1.89%	-1.31%	-2.57%	-2.78%	-2.34%	-3.96%	-3.22%	-5.04%	-2.91%
Max Increase		-2.10%	-6.60%	-11.04%	-11.54%	-13.79%	-7.53%	-13.18%	-12.22%	-12.00%	-11.53%	-9.40%
Avg Days to Max Increase		2	6	11	8	12	7	10	10	6	14	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes						Yes
Action		Yes	No		No						Not Yet
High	54.76	52.25	49.84	50.68	50.84	53.13	54.90	58.20	60.38	66.02	65.63	66.55
Low	50.02	46.22	44.34	45.76	47.48	49.35	50.26	54.12	55.90	59.99	57.60	59.91
Close/Last	50.68	49.19	47.98	50.57	49.74	52.14	54.54	57.09	60.27	64.31	61.47	64.94