MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		21	22	23	24	24	24	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Higher		11	10	15	16	14	11	10	11	15	15	17
Exceeded High		8	10	13	14	12	8	8	11	14	13	14
Scenario Percentage		73%	100%	87%	88%	86%	73%	80%	100%	93%	87%	82%
Avg Max Increase		8.82%	8.29%	10.39%	10.09%	7.11%	10.20%	15.16%	11.65%	13.33%	15.81%	9.94%
Max Increase		19.67%	19.00%	47.75%	33.91%	22.30%	17.51%	24.18%	27.19%	32.58%	43.26%	25.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	21	23	15	14	24	14	17	16	15	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.66%	-0.73%	-1.42%	-1.52%	-2.71%	-2.92%	-1.19%	-2.90%	-3.31%	-1.98%	-2.19%
Max Decline		-7.04%	-3.57%	-8.10%	-7.53%	-11.42%	-9.01%	-3.03%	-10.12%	-12.77%	-6.76%	-6.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	11	7	4	13	3	11	10	7	4
2008 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		21	22	23	24	24	24	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Lower		10	12	8	8	10	13	15	14	10	10	8
Penetrated Low		7	9	3	4	8	12	12	9	4	5	4
Scenario Percentage		70%	75%	38%	50%	80%	92%	80%	64%	40%	50%	50%
Avg Max Decline		6.91%	5.97%	7.72%	9.44%	9.55%	10.87%	13.88%	15.81%	24.72%	11.70%	10.31%
Max Decline		10.52%	16.54%	12.13%	17.69%	23.43%	23.84%	31.02%	44.68%	45.53%	28.26%	19.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	17	21	18	20	19	18	20	19	12	6
Avg Max Increase		-0.31%	-1.22%	-4.67%	-2.69%	-2.93%	-2.68%	-2.21%	-3.09%	-0.54%	-4.89%	-3.04%
Max Increase		-2.07%	-6.60%	-11.04%	-11.54%	-13.79%	-7.53%	-13.18%	-9.68%	-1.76%	-11.53%	-9.40%
Avg Days to Max Increase		2	5	25	12	16	9	11	12	7	11	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		No			No			Yes		No
High	71.83	71.54	72.83	74.27	74.14	78.79	89.56	94.62	96.07	98.52	102.65	110.35
Low	69.01	68.02	69.16	72.12	67.95	70.53	75.34	86.67	85.40	85.07	86.33	98.33
Close/Last	71.24	69.16	72.22	73.94	70.58	77.37	89.56	87.05	94.65	91.52	101.42	101.58