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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jul 16, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   39 40 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 42 42
Closed Higher   28 20 22 25 23 20 19 19 21 23 23
Exceeded High   22 14 20 22 17 17 12 17 21 18 18
Scenario Percentage   79% 70% 91% 88% 74% 85% 63% 89% 100% 78% 78%
Avg Max Increase   7.57% 9.66% 7.85% 9.35% 10.98% 7.92% 11.13% 13.13% 12.91% 15.84% 10.38%
Max Increase   30.99% 20.17% 19.95% 52.11% 37.03% 23.10% 19.04% 26.67% 35.74% 50.88% 36.34%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 14 18 21 14 14 23 15 18 13 11
Avg Max Decline   -1.41% -1.05% -1.89% -2.51% -1.73% -2.32% -2.35% -2.49% -2.76% -3.81% -1.44%
Max Decline   -4.76% -4.14% -12.26% -13.02% -8.69% -12.12% -8.10% -8.69% -10.65% -13.62% -4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 6 8 10 8 5 9 5 10 7 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes       Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   No   Yes       No   Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   39 40 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 42 42
Closed Lower   11 19 19 16 18 19 22 23 21 19 19
Penetrated Low   6 14 14 11 10 14 21 19 12 12 11
Scenario Percentage   55% 74% 74% 69% 56% 74% 95% 83% 57% 63% 58%
Avg Max Decline   6.17% 7.67% 9.42% 12.53% 15.38% 12.89% 13.58% 15.23% 18.78% 20.66% 12.18%
Max Decline   12.93% 18.16% 31.93% 26.53% 45.37% 49.17% 43.57% 35.76% 48.16% 61.18% 55.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 15 18 19 17 14 18 17 18 13 11
Avg Max Increase   -2.60% -0.98% -1.91% -1.96% -2.46% -2.05% -2.80% -2.94% -3.90% -3.38% -2.71%
Max Increase   -6.17% -6.82% -8.81% -11.96% -12.63% -11.35% -8.69% -13.41% -12.44% -12.37% -8.71%
Avg Days to Max Increase   17 3 9 12 7 5 7 9 11 10 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes
Action     Yes   Yes Yes No   No     Yes
High 75.53 78.74 75.63 77.17 78.38 74.51 70.85 75.32 71.34 71.11 77.86 74.06
Low 71.43 74.59 72.69 70.18 71.34 68.82 63.57 65.40 66.13 66.41 70.92 68.36
Close/Last 75.53 75.75 73.76 76.15 73.69 70.40 67.11 68.01 67.31 70.86 71.98 69.76

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