MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		34	35	36	36	36	36	36	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		24	17	18	22	21	18	16	18	18	19	20
Exceeded High		20	11	16	19	16	16	11	16	18	15	15
Scenario Percentage		83%	65%	89%	86%	76%	89%	69%	89%	100%	79%	75%
Avg Max Increase		6.68%	9.09%	7.66%	9.58%	11.20%	7.80%	11.38%	12.84%	10.84%	12.87%	8.88%
Max Increase		30.99%	20.17%	19.95%	52.11%	37.03%	23.10%	19.04%	26.67%	35.74%	27.99%	27.73%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	15	19	20	14	14	24	15	17	14	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.36%	-0.95%	-2.15%	-1.99%	-1.84%	-2.42%	-2.57%	-2.47%	-3.02%	-4.01%	-1.31%
Max Decline		-4.76%	-4.14%	-12.26%	-12.93%	-8.69%	-12.12%	-8.10%	-8.69%	-10.65%	-13.62%	-4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	10	9	9	5	9	5	11	9	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		34	35	36	36	36	36	36	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		10	17	18	14	15	16	20	19	19	18	17
Penetrated Low		6	12	13	9	8	13	19	16	12	11	9
Scenario Percentage		60%	71%	72%	64%	53%	81%	95%	84%	63%	61%	53%
Avg Max Decline		6.17%	8.44%	9.24%	11.70%	16.17%	12.73%	14.05%	16.41%	18.78%	20.93%	12.45%
Max Decline		12.93%	18.16%	31.93%	26.53%	45.37%	49.17%	43.57%	35.76%	48.16%	61.18%	55.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	18	19	16	15	20	19	18	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.60%	-0.57%	-1.81%	-2.14%	-2.92%	-2.00%	-2.73%	-2.95%	-3.90%	-3.48%	-2.61%
Max Increase		-6.17%	-2.09%	-8.81%	-11.96%	-12.63%	-11.35%	-8.69%	-13.41%	-12.44%	-12.37%	-8.71%
Avg Days to Max Increase		17	3	9	10	8	5	7	11	11	7	3
2020 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
High	60.06	63.00	61.88	57.87	59.29	56.92	59.58	56.31	57.94	61.82	64.99	54.66
Low	56.63	59.55	52.41	50.51	54.38	50.04	51.37	50.00	53.55	54.88	51.09	43.85
Close/Last	59.32	61.58	52.90	56.82	57.47	53.10	52.49	53.63	54.74	60.41	51.68	44.76