MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		31	32	33	33	33	33	33	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		22	16	16	20	20	16	14	16	16	17	19
Exceeded High		19	11	14	17	15	14	9	14	16	14	14
Scenario Percentage		86%	69%	88%	85%	75%	88%	64%	88%	100%	82%	74%
Avg Max Increase		6.63%	9.09%	8.29%	10.19%	11.15%	7.68%	11.03%	12.20%	11.10%	13.06%	9.75%
Max Increase		30.99%	20.17%	19.95%	52.11%	37.03%	23.10%	19.04%	26.67%	35.74%	27.99%	32.71%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	15	19	20	15	14	23	15	18	13	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.32%	-0.95%	-1.78%	-1.10%	-1.74%	-2.47%	-3.03%	-2.67%	-3.20%	-3.98%	-1.06%
Max Decline		-4.76%	-4.14%	-12.26%	-8.61%	-8.69%	-12.12%	-8.10%	-8.69%	-10.65%	-13.62%	-3.63%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	8	9	9	5	11	5	11	8	2
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		31	32	33	33	33	33	33	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		9	15	17	13	13	15	19	18	18	17	15
Penetrated Low		5	10	13	8	7	12	18	15	12	10	8
Scenario Percentage		56%	67%	76%	62%	54%	80%	95%	83%	67%	59%	53%
Avg Max Decline		4.82%	8.65%	9.24%	12.59%	17.65%	13.39%	12.91%	16.41%	18.78%	16.91%	7.50%
Max Decline		10.16%	18.16%	31.93%	26.53%	45.37%	49.17%	43.57%	35.76%	48.16%	38.98%	17.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	17	18	20	18	16	19	19	18	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-2.44%	-0.40%	-1.81%	-2.23%	-1.60%	-2.06%	-2.87%	-2.65%	-3.90%	-3.25%	-1.85%
Max Increase		-6.17%	-2.09%	-8.81%	-11.96%	-12.63%	-11.35%	-8.69%	-13.41%	-12.44%	-12.37%	-6.43%
Avg Days to Max Increase		16	3	9	11	7	6	8	12	11	6	3
2017 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes			Yes
Action					Yes			Yes			Yes
High	45.77	49.25	51.99	53.93	52.85	52.18	51.14	54.02	52.32	56.72	56.92	55.03
Low	41.91	40.97	46.42	49.21	44.87	43.97	46.33	48.88	45.18	51.52	52.42	51.86
Close/Last	44.09	48.74	51.39	51.83	45.90	47.96	50.81	49.13	51.89	55.43	53.42	54.01