MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		27	28	29	29	29	29	29	30	30	30	30
Closed Higher		19	14	13	19	17	15	13	15	14	17	16
Exceeded High		16	9	13	16	14	13	9	13	14	14	13
Scenario Percentage		84%	64%	100%	84%	82%	87%	69%	87%	100%	82%	81%
Avg Max Increase		6.52%	9.99%	7.97%	10.45%	11.04%	7.79%	11.03%	12.40%	12.13%	13.06%	9.73%
Max Increase		30.99%	20.17%	19.95%	52.11%	37.03%	23.10%	19.04%	26.67%	35.74%	27.99%	27.73%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	17	19	20	16	14	23	16	18	13	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.15%	-0.87%	-1.88%	-1.06%	-1.62%	-2.60%	-3.03%	-2.83%	-2.96%	-3.98%	-1.17%
Max Decline		-4.57%	-4.14%	-12.26%	-8.61%	-8.69%	-12.12%	-8.10%	-8.69%	-10.65%	-13.62%	-3.63%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	9	9	8	5	11	5	12	8	2
2013 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		27	28	29	29	29	29	29	30	30	30	30
Closed Lower		8	13	16	10	12	12	16	15	16	13	14
Penetrated Low		5	9	12	5	6	9	15	12	10	7	8
Scenario Percentage		63%	69%	75%	50%	50%	75%	94%	80%	63%	54%	57%
Avg Max Decline		4.82%	7.60%	7.35%	14.30%	17.78%	13.46%	12.47%	14.59%	18.06%	17.78%	7.11%
Max Decline		10.16%	10.30%	19.41%	26.53%	45.37%	49.17%	43.57%	34.10%	48.16%	38.98%	17.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	18	21	19	14	19	18	18	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-2.44%	-0.22%	-2.08%	-3.63%	-1.87%	-1.05%	-3.33%	-2.19%	-4.00%	-2.24%	-1.85%
Max Increase		-6.17%	-1.96%	-8.81%	-11.96%	-12.63%	-5.36%	-8.69%	-13.41%	-12.44%	-7.08%	-6.43%
Avg Days to Max Increase		16	2	10	15	7	5	9	12	12	5	3
2013 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes				Yes
Action			Yes	No			Yes	Yes				Yes
High	108.73	107.17	106.50	88.84	94.56	99.43	101.50	95.40	91.29	92.82	98.66	98.65
Low	104.16	103.20	88.43	81.00	86.45	89.51	90.93	86.74	86.42	87.04	92.41	91.57
Close/Last	104.94	105.39	88.43	88.23	90.40	98.22	93.98	88.31	90.68	92.73	97.96	92.05