MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		25	26	27	27	27	27	27	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher		17	14	13	18	16	15	12	13	13	16	15
Exceeded High		15	9	13	15	13	13	8	11	13	14	12
Scenario Percentage		88%	64%	100%	83%	81%	87%	67%	85%	100%	88%	80%
Avg Max Increase		6.95%	9.99%	7.97%	10.33%	11.64%	7.79%	11.03%	13.53%	12.57%	13.06%	10.84%
Max Increase		30.99%	20.17%	19.95%	52.11%	37.03%	23.10%	19.04%	26.67%	35.74%	27.99%	32.71%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	17	19	20	16	14	24	16	17	13	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.18%	-0.87%	-1.88%	-1.06%	-1.59%	-2.60%	-2.94%	-2.32%	-3.16%	-3.98%	-1.27%
Max Decline		-4.57%	-4.14%	-12.26%	-8.61%	-8.69%	-12.12%	-8.10%	-8.69%	-10.65%	-13.62%	-3.63%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	9	10	9	5	13	4	13	8	2
2011 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		25	26	27	27	27	27	27	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower		8	11	14	9	11	10	15	15	15	12	13
Penetrated Low		5	7	11	4	5	7	14	12	10	6	7
Scenario Percentage		63%	64%	79%	44%	45%	70%	93%	80%	67%	50%	54%
Avg Max Decline		4.82%	7.10%	6.25%	12.81%	18.15%	15.47%	13.21%	14.59%	18.06%	20.23%	8.15%
Max Decline		10.16%	10.27%	18.10%	26.53%	45.37%	49.17%	43.57%	34.10%	48.16%	38.98%	17.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	14	19	20	22	16	20	18	18	13	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.44%	-0.23%	-1.94%	-4.14%	-2.06%	-1.04%	-3.33%	-2.19%	-4.00%	-2.44%	-2.13%
Max Increase		-6.17%	-1.96%	-8.81%	-11.96%	-12.63%	-5.36%	-8.69%	-13.41%	-12.44%	-7.08%	-6.43%
Avg Days to Max Increase		16	2	8	19	9	4	9	12	12	6	3
2011 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			No	Yes		No		Yes
High	85.90	92.57	93.98	83.55	82.43	85.70	83.80	87.04	90.00	93.45	94.89	103.41
Low	82.04	86.72	73.52	77.20	75.37	74.98	78.19	82.25	81.82	85.12	87.83	87.09
Close/Last	85.90	92.55	79.83	78.76	82.43	78.14	83.69	83.61	85.38	92.91	94.28	96.97