MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		37	38	38	39	39	39	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Higher		25	26	20	20	25	22	21	19	19	22	21
Exceeded High		24	22	14	18	22	16	19	12	17	21	11
Scenario Percentage		96%	85%	70%	90%	88%	73%	90%	63%	89%	95%	52%
Avg Max Increase		8.75%	7.42%	9.92%	8.08%	10.15%	11.87%	7.90%	11.85%	13.94%	11.74%	8.70%
Max Increase		18.96%	30.64%	20.21%	19.96%	57.94%	40.70%	23.66%	22.62%	28.40%	28.03%	19.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	14	17	19	21	14	14	23	15	15	13
Avg Max Decline		-2.31%	-1.96%	-0.98%	-2.18%	-2.60%	-2.09%	-2.33%	-2.57%	-2.71%	-2.70%	-1.41%
Max Decline		-9.61%	-5.08%	-4.51%	-12.94%	-13.33%	-10.27%	-12.15%	-7.76%	-9.26%	-10.82%	-4.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	6	11	9	10	4	8	5	8	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		37	38	38	39	39	39	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Lower		11	12	18	19	14	17	19	20	21	18	19
Penetrated Low		6	6	12	13	10	10	15	19	18	11	11
Scenario Percentage		55%	50%	67%	68%	71%	59%	79%	95%	86%	61%	58%
Avg Max Decline		10.70%	6.38%	8.82%	10.05%	12.76%	14.55%	13.05%	14.37%	16.15%	19.58%	11.11%
Max Decline		21.20%	13.56%	19.01%	32.87%	26.84%	46.42%	50.06%	45.65%	37.26%	45.24%	26.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	20	16	16	20	20	15	18	16	17	10
Avg Max Increase		-3.57%	-2.78%	-0.70%	-2.15%	-2.46%	-2.06%	-2.19%	-2.28%	-2.79%	-4.48%	-1.59%
Max Increase		-8.18%	-6.41%	-2.27%	-9.13%	-12.86%	-13.48%	-11.91%	-5.18%	-8.32%	-12.69%	-7.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	3	7	12	11	7	5	8	11	3
2023 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Not Yet	Yes
High	85.12	97.28	95.59	99.57	104.91	93.97	91.44	86.52	87.90	89.89	83.14	82.66
Low	75.51	79.82	85.91	86.83	89.28	80.00	82.31	73.28	76.93	73.91	70.56	72.74
Close/Last	79.74	86.84	89.09	96.12	90.68	90.22	85.84	75.57	82.88	80.75	80.45	78.87