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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years   37 38 38 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Higher   25 26 20 20 25 22 21 19 19 22 21
Exceeded High   24 22 14 18 22 16 19 12 17 21 11
Scenario Percentage   96% 85% 70% 90% 88% 73% 90% 63% 89% 95% 52%
Avg Max Increase   8.75% 7.42% 9.92% 8.08% 10.15% 11.87% 7.90% 11.85% 13.94% 11.74% 8.70%
Max Increase   18.96% 30.64% 20.21% 19.96% 57.94% 40.70% 23.66% 22.62% 28.40% 28.03% 19.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 14 17 19 21 14 14 23 15 15 13
Avg Max Decline   -2.31% -1.96% -0.98% -2.18% -2.60% -2.09% -2.33% -2.57% -2.71% -2.70% -1.41%
Max Decline   -9.61% -5.08% -4.51% -12.94% -13.33% -10.27% -12.15% -7.76% -9.26% -10.82% -4.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 9 6 11 9 10 4 8 5 8 2
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes         Yes      
Action   Yes Yes Yes         Yes      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Tested Years   37 38 38 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Lower   11 12 18 19 14 17 19 20 21 18 19
Penetrated Low   6 6 12 13 10 10 15 19 18 11 11
Scenario Percentage   55% 50% 67% 68% 71% 59% 79% 95% 86% 61% 58%
Avg Max Decline   10.70% 6.38% 8.82% 10.05% 12.76% 14.55% 13.05% 14.37% 16.15% 19.58% 11.11%
Max Decline   21.20% 13.56% 19.01% 32.87% 26.84% 46.42% 50.06% 45.65% 37.26% 45.24% 26.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline   12 20 16 16 20 20 15 18 16 17 10
Avg Max Increase   -3.57% -2.78% -0.70% -2.15% -2.46% -2.06% -2.19% -2.28% -2.79% -4.48% -1.59%
Max Increase   -8.18% -6.41% -2.27% -9.13% -12.86% -13.48% -11.91% -5.18% -8.32% -12.69% -7.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 12 3 7 12 11 7 5 8 11 3
2023 Contract Condition         Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action         Yes Yes Yes No   Yes Not Yet Yes
High 85.12 97.28 95.59 99.57 104.91 93.97 91.44 86.52 87.90 89.89 83.14 82.66
Low 75.51 79.82 85.91 86.83 89.28 80.00 82.31 73.28 76.93 73.91 70.56 72.74
Close/Last 79.74 86.84 89.09 96.12 90.68 90.22 85.84 75.57 82.88 80.75 80.45 78.87

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