MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		35	36	36	37	37	37	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		24	24	18	19	24	22	20	17	19	21	20
Exceeded High		23	20	12	17	21	16	18	11	17	20	11
Scenario Percentage		96%	83%	67%	89%	88%	73%	90%	65%	89%	95%	55%
Avg Max Increase		8.49%	6.48%	9.77%	8.38%	10.30%	11.87%	7.75%	12.16%	13.94%	10.95%	8.95%
Max Increase		18.96%	30.64%	20.21%	19.96%	57.94%	40.70%	23.66%	22.62%	28.40%	28.03%	19.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	19	20	21	14	13	24	15	15	14
Avg Max Decline		-2.36%	-1.96%	-1.08%	-2.22%	-2.09%	-2.09%	-2.40%	-2.77%	-2.71%	-2.78%	-1.31%
Max Decline		-9.61%	-5.08%	-4.51%	-12.94%	-13.33%	-10.27%	-12.15%	-7.76%	-9.26%	-10.82%	-4.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	7	11	8	10	5	9	5	8	2
2021 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		35	36	36	37	37	37	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		10	12	18	18	13	15	18	20	19	17	18
Penetrated Low		6	6	12	12	9	9	15	19	16	11	10
Scenario Percentage		60%	50%	67%	67%	69%	60%	83%	95%	84%	65%	56%
Avg Max Decline		10.70%	6.38%	8.82%	9.90%	12.09%	14.54%	13.05%	14.37%	17.05%	19.58%	11.38%
Max Decline		21.20%	13.56%	19.01%	32.87%	26.84%	46.42%	50.06%	45.65%	37.26%	45.24%	26.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	20	16	16	19	19	15	18	18	17	10
Avg Max Increase		-3.57%	-2.78%	-0.70%	-2.03%	-2.59%	-2.21%	-2.19%	-2.28%	-2.64%	-4.48%	-1.64%
Max Increase		-8.18%	-6.41%	-2.27%	-9.13%	-12.86%	-13.48%	-11.91%	-5.18%	-8.32%	-12.69%	-7.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	3	8	10	11	7	5	9	11	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No					Yes	Yes
High	53.26	49.06	37.97	37.84	42.06	43.14	45.07	44.74	42.64	46.52	49.52	53.94
Low	45.49	29.96	27.66	29.58	36.55	39.65	41.46	38.54	36.09	35.00	44.27	47.31
Close/Last	46.17	35.10	31.66	37.67	39.97	41.99	44.06	41.47	37.00	45.65	48.63	52.20