MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		33	34	34	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		23	23	17	17	22	21	20	16	17	19	19
Exceeded High		22	20	11	15	19	16	18	10	15	18	9
Scenario Percentage		96%	87%	65%	88%	86%	76%	90%	63%	88%	95%	47%
Avg Max Increase		8.58%	6.48%	9.33%	8.35%	10.78%	11.87%	7.75%	11.85%	13.32%	9.11%	7.24%
Max Increase		18.96%	30.64%	20.21%	19.96%	57.94%	40.70%	23.66%	22.62%	28.40%	22.83%	11.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	18	20	21	14	13	24	15	14	12
Avg Max Decline		-2.50%	-1.96%	-0.90%	-2.24%	-1.54%	-2.09%	-2.40%	-3.01%	-2.88%	-2.23%	-1.41%
Max Decline		-9.61%	-5.08%	-4.51%	-12.94%	-8.90%	-10.27%	-12.15%	-7.76%	-9.26%	-10.82%	-4.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	7	12	8	10	5	9	5	7	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		33	34	34	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		9	11	17	18	13	14	16	19	19	17	17
Penetrated Low		5	6	11	12	9	9	13	18	16	11	9
Scenario Percentage		56%	55%	65%	67%	69%	64%	81%	95%	84%	65%	53%
Avg Max Decline		8.60%	6.38%	9.19%	9.90%	12.09%	14.54%	13.46%	14.87%	17.05%	19.42%	11.90%
Max Decline		16.31%	13.56%	19.01%	32.87%	26.84%	46.42%	50.06%	45.65%	37.26%	43.46%	24.06%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	20	17	16	19	19	17	18	18	17	11
Avg Max Increase		-2.64%	-2.78%	-0.62%	-2.03%	-2.59%	-2.21%	-2.21%	-2.20%	-2.64%	-4.48%	-1.73%
Max Increase		-6.17%	-6.41%	-2.27%	-9.13%	-12.86%	-13.48%	-11.91%	-5.18%	-8.32%	-12.69%	-7.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	12	3	8	10	11	7	5	9	11	3
2019 Contract Condition						Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action						Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	60.35	61.47	64.83	68.97	67.96	68.26	68.74	73.00	76.29	65.78	54.98	55.37
Low	54.15	55.79	58.55	62.78	61.69	63.24	62.83	65.84	65.26	49.78	42.67	44.67
Close/Last	56.98	60.48	64.18	64.49	67.56	65.95	68.16	72.51	65.73	51.23	45.72	53.79