MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		29	30	30	31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		21	20	15	15	21	18	17	14	15	17	17
Exceeded High		20	17	10	14	18	14	15	9	13	17	8
Scenario Percentage		95%	85%	67%	93%	86%	78%	88%	64%	87%	100%	47%
Avg Max Increase		7.79%	6.38%	9.77%	8.83%	11.08%	11.80%	7.68%	11.98%	13.37%	9.05%	7.56%
Max Increase		17.96%	30.64%	20.21%	19.96%	57.94%	40.70%	23.66%	22.62%	28.40%	22.83%	11.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	19	19	21	15	14	23	15	14	11
Avg Max Decline		-2.22%	-1.81%	-0.77%	-1.90%	-1.27%	-1.87%	-2.53%	-3.25%	-3.07%	-2.33%	-0.99%
Max Decline		-9.61%	-5.03%	-4.51%	-12.94%	-8.90%	-10.27%	-12.15%	-7.76%	-9.26%	-10.82%	-2.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	7	10	8	10	5	10	5	7	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		29	30	30	31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		7	10	15	16	10	13	15	17	17	15	15
Penetrated Low		4	5	9	11	6	9	12	16	14	10	7
Scenario Percentage		57%	50%	60%	69%	60%	69%	80%	94%	82%	67%	47%
Avg Max Decline		7.87%	4.95%	7.91%	7.82%	13.42%	14.54%	13.80%	14.00%	15.64%	18.19%	11.65%
Max Decline		16.31%	9.86%	11.14%	19.91%	26.84%	46.42%	50.06%	45.65%	36.34%	43.46%	24.06%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	20	16	16	22	19	16	18	17	18	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.93%	-2.64%	-0.33%	-2.29%	-3.61%	-2.21%	-1.40%	-2.40%	-2.41%	-4.58%	-1.57%
Max Increase		-6.17%	-6.41%	-1.91%	-9.13%	-12.86%	-13.48%	-5.76%	-5.18%	-8.32%	-12.69%	-7.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		1	10	2	8	14	11	6	6	10	11	3
2015 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	92.93	93.63	95.00	96.39	100.52	100.33	95.56	93.80	90.26	80.75	69.74	55.51
Low	87.57	89.99	90.79	91.96	95.03	94.67	91.32	88.72	77.89	66.05	52.87	43.58
Close/Last	92.34	92.79	92.77	95.46	99.87	94.92	93.66	89.06	80.31	66.41	53.70	48.24