MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		28	29	29	30	30	30	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher		20	20	14	14	21	18	17	14	15	17	17
Exceeded High		19	17	9	14	18	14	15	9	13	17	8
Scenario Percentage		95%	85%	64%	100%	86%	78%	88%	64%	87%	100%	47%
Avg Max Increase		7.99%	6.38%	10.27%	8.83%	11.08%	11.80%	7.68%	11.98%	13.37%	9.05%	7.56%
Max Increase		17.96%	30.64%	20.21%	19.96%	57.94%	40.70%	23.66%	22.62%	28.40%	22.83%	11.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	19	19	21	15	14	23	15	14	11
Avg Max Decline		-2.23%	-1.81%	-0.80%	-1.90%	-1.27%	-1.87%	-2.53%	-3.25%	-3.07%	-2.33%	-0.99%
Max Decline		-9.61%	-5.03%	-4.51%	-12.94%	-8.90%	-10.27%	-12.15%	-7.76%	-9.26%	-10.82%	-2.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	8	10	8	10	5	10	5	7	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes	No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		28	29	29	30	30	30	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower		7	9	15	16	9	12	14	16	16	14	14
Penetrated Low		4	5	9	11	5	8	11	15	13	9	7
Scenario Percentage		57%	56%	60%	69%	56%	67%	79%	94%	81%	64%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.87%	4.95%	7.91%	7.82%	14.80%	14.26%	12.71%	12.66%	14.19%	18.12%	11.65%
Max Decline		16.31%	9.86%	11.14%	19.91%	26.84%	46.42%	50.06%	45.65%	36.34%	43.46%	24.06%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	20	16	16	21	19	15	18	16	16	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.93%	-2.64%	-0.33%	-2.29%	-4.19%	-2.46%	-1.41%	-2.53%	-2.21%	-4.71%	-1.57%
Max Increase		-6.17%	-6.41%	-1.91%	-9.13%	-12.86%	-13.48%	-5.76%	-5.18%	-8.32%	-12.69%	-7.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		1	10	2	8	15	12	7	6	11	12	3
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			No	No				Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	97.29	94.46	95.08	94.10	95.97	99.39	104.37	103.14	101.81	96.74	100.79	99.08
Low	91.59	89.51	84.88	87.90	89.37	91.88	96.50	97.97	95.54	92.35	93.08	91.47
Close/Last	91.62	94.46	90.87	90.04	92.27	98.17	101.34	99.13	96.47	93.24	98.55	97.49