MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		27	28	28	29	29	29	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Higher		19	20	14	13	20	17	17	14	15	16	17
Exceeded High		18	17	9	13	17	14	15	9	13	16	8
Scenario Percentage		95%	85%	64%	100%	85%	82%	88%	64%	87%	100%	47%
Avg Max Increase		8.40%	6.38%	10.27%	8.50%	11.36%	11.80%	7.68%	11.98%	13.37%	9.28%	7.56%
Max Increase		17.96%	30.64%	20.21%	19.96%	57.94%	40.70%	23.66%	22.62%	28.40%	22.83%	11.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	19	18	20	15	14	23	15	13	11
Avg Max Decline		-2.32%	-1.81%	-0.80%	-2.01%	-1.24%	-1.87%	-2.53%	-3.25%	-3.07%	-2.03%	-0.99%
Max Decline		-9.61%	-5.03%	-4.51%	-12.94%	-8.90%	-10.27%	-12.15%	-7.76%	-9.26%	-10.82%	-2.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	9	8	10	8	10	5	10	5	7	2
2013 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		27	28	28	29	29	29	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Lower		7	8	14	16	9	12	13	15	15	14	13
Penetrated Low		4	5	9	11	5	8	10	14	12	9	7
Scenario Percentage		57%	63%	64%	69%	56%	67%	77%	93%	80%	64%	54%
Avg Max Decline		7.87%	4.95%	7.91%	7.82%	14.80%	14.26%	13.30%	13.26%	15.22%	18.12%	11.65%
Max Decline		16.31%	9.86%	11.14%	19.91%	26.84%	46.42%	50.06%	45.65%	36.34%	43.46%	24.06%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	20	16	16	21	19	14	17	17	16	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.93%	-2.64%	-0.33%	-2.29%	-4.19%	-2.46%	-1.28%	-2.69%	-1.72%	-4.71%	-1.57%
Max Increase		-6.17%	-6.41%	-1.91%	-9.13%	-12.86%	-13.48%	-5.76%	-5.18%	-8.32%	-12.69%	-7.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		1	10	2	8	15	12	6	6	10	12	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No			Yes	Yes
High	108.80	109.18	107.40	106.77	88.94	94.67	99.62	101.78	95.21	90.82	92.40	98.24
Low	98.25	104.77	103.39	88.04	80.48	84.95	89.39	90.57	86.31	85.80	86.40	91.96
Close/Last	107.07	105.20	105.69	88.40	87.95	90.28	98.12	93.76	87.83	90.13	92.27	97.49