MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		26	27	27	28	28	28	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher		19	19	14	13	19	16	17	14	14	15	16
Exceeded High		18	17	9	13	16	13	15	9	12	15	8
Scenario Percentage		95%	89%	64%	100%	84%	81%	88%	64%	86%	100%	50%
Avg Max Increase		8.40%	6.38%	10.27%	8.50%	11.27%	12.42%	7.68%	11.98%	13.74%	10.72%	7.59%
Max Increase		17.96%	30.64%	20.21%	19.96%	57.94%	40.70%	23.66%	22.62%	28.40%	22.83%	12.06%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	19	18	21	15	14	23	14	13	11
Avg Max Decline		-2.32%	-1.81%	-0.80%	-2.01%	-1.26%	-1.87%	-2.53%	-3.25%	-2.98%	-2.80%	-0.99%
Max Decline		-9.61%	-5.03%	-4.51%	-12.94%	-8.90%	-10.27%	-12.15%	-7.76%	-9.26%	-10.82%	-2.86%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	9	8	10	8	10	5	10	5	9	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		26	27	27	28	28	28	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower		6	8	13	15	9	12	12	14	15	14	13
Penetrated Low		3	5	8	11	5	8	9	13	12	9	7
Scenario Percentage		50%	63%	62%	73%	56%	67%	75%	93%	80%	64%	54%
Avg Max Decline		5.06%	4.95%	7.77%	7.82%	14.80%	14.26%	13.83%	14.10%	15.22%	18.31%	11.99%
Max Decline		5.63%	9.86%	11.14%	19.91%	26.84%	46.42%	50.06%	45.65%	36.34%	45.24%	26.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline		6	20	14	16	21	19	15	18	17	16	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.87%	-2.64%	-0.29%	-2.29%	-4.19%	-2.46%	-1.25%	-2.64%	-1.72%	-4.71%	-1.57%
Max Increase		-6.17%	-6.41%	-1.91%	-9.13%	-12.86%	-13.48%	-5.76%	-5.18%	-8.32%	-12.69%	-7.07%
Avg Days to Max Increase		1	10	2	8	15	12	6	6	10	12	3
2012 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet	Yes
High	103.13	107.80	114.16	114.87	104.99	102.81	100.59	91.34	93.98	103.20	102.68	103.88
Low	97.07	99.50	107.28	96.87	93.46	97.38	79.11	78.54	75.92	88.85	92.95	97.40
Close/Last	101.41	107.79	114.16	104.91	98.78	98.34	90.35	79.80	92.92	100.55	99.00	98.48