MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		30	31	32	33	33	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		18	22	22	17	16	22	19	17	16	16	18
Exceeded High		17	21	19	12	14	20	15	14	10	14	15
Scenario Percentage		94%	95%	86%	71%	88%	91%	79%	82%	63%	88%	83%
Avg Max Increase		9.14%	8.45%	7.34%	9.81%	9.34%	10.91%	10.67%	8.04%	12.74%	13.48%	8.12%
Max Increase		17.47%	19.47%	31.97%	19.87%	21.18%	63.08%	43.64%	24.44%	27.15%	28.47%	15.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	16	13	18	18	19	14	13	23	11	11
Avg Max Decline		-1.35%	-2.48%	-1.67%	-0.76%	-2.01%	-1.24%	-2.95%	-2.77%	-2.86%	-3.03%	-1.10%
Max Decline		-12.87%	-9.77%	-5.06%	-5.01%	-13.43%	-9.12%	-12.70%	-12.01%	-7.14%	-9.95%	-6.17%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	8	10	6	10	7	10	5	9	5	4
2017 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		30	31	32	33	33	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		12	8	10	16	17	12	14	17	18	18	16
Penetrated Low		5	5	4	11	12	8	10	13	17	15	10
Scenario Percentage		42%	63%	40%	69%	71%	67%	71%	76%	94%	83%	63%
Avg Max Decline		10.13%	6.69%	6.15%	8.75%	10.17%	13.55%	13.93%	14.09%	14.43%	17.43%	15.89%
Max Decline		27.66%	16.19%	9.41%	19.74%	33.64%	26.95%	46.60%	50.99%	49.25%	41.06%	36.71%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	14	19	18	17	17	17	17	19	14	14
Avg Max Increase		-2.53%	-1.77%	-2.34%	-1.13%	-2.32%	-3.13%	-2.64%	-2.31%	-2.51%	-2.73%	-4.02%
Max Increase		-7.60%	-6.19%	-6.65%	-6.17%	-9.19%	-14.94%	-14.44%	-12.49%	-5.31%	-10.68%	-15.15%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	4	9	3	8	11	11	6	5	10	4
2017 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes			Yes
Action		No					Yes			Yes
High	45.14	41.76	45.30	49.04	52.04	53.82	52.46	51.59	50.26	53.26	50.80	55.44
Low	35.10	37.60	40.80	40.39	46.10	48.74	43.98	42.99	45.12	47.81	43.73	49.94
Close/Last	42.51	41.30	43.56	48.51	51.21	51.34	45.06	47.06	49.93	48.05	50.34	53.72