MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	20	21	22	23	23	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Higher	11	15	15	13	10	17	15	14	11	11	12
Exceeded High	10	14	13	8	10	15	12	11	7	9	11
Scenario Percentage	91%	93%	87%	62%	100%	88%	80%	79%	64%	82%	92%
Avg Max Increase	10.24%	8.40%	6.87%	9.98%	10.08%	12.12%	11.89%	6.65%	14.08%	18.12%	10.80%
Max Increase	17.47%	17.48%	16.61%	19.87%	21.18%	63.08%	43.64%	14.16%	27.15%	31.79%	16.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase	13	17	15	21	20	20	15	13	24	14	14
Avg Max Decline	0.46%	-2.55%	-1.54%	-0.56%	-1.24%	-0.87%	-2.10%	-3.04%	-2.58%	-2.13%	-1.49%
Max Decline	-1.67%	-9.77%	-4.95%	-5.01%	-4.91%	-3.70%	-11.67%	-12.01%	-7.14%	-8.61%	-6.17%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	8	10	7	11	7	8	4	8	4	4
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	20	21	22	23	23	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Lower	9	5	7	10	13	7	8	10	13	13	12
Penetrated Low	4	3	4	8	9	3	6	7	12	10	9
Scenario Percentage	44%	60%	57%	80%	69%	43%	75%	70%	92%	77%	75%
Avg Max Decline	10.94%	5.23%	6.15%	7.02%	6.97%	10.23%	8.70%	10.52%	12.10%	14.85%	24.93%
Max Decline	27.66%	6.22%	9.41%	11.60%	18.10%	16.37%	19.56%	27.43%	27.36%	41.06%	50.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	13	19	15	17	21	17	16	18	14	14
Avg Max Increase	-2.19%	-2.43%	-2.34%	-1.14%	-1.73%	-6.15%	-3.55%	-1.47%	-2.68%	-2.40%	-6.09%
Max Increase	-7.60%	-6.19%	-6.65%	-6.17%	-6.01%	-14.94%	-14.44%	-5.75%	-5.31%	-10.68%	-20.90%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	6	9	3	4	25	14	6	7	12	8
2007 Contract Condition	Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	No			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
High	70.80	70.01	77.01	77.59	76.46	81.24	80.39	73.80	66.21	65.30	65.40
Low	63.89	65.40	69.76	72.50	71.57	76.28	72.35	62.15	60.35	59.43	59.90
Close/Last	67.28	69.80	75.47	74.34	76.46	77.85	73.61	65.83	61.90	64.62	61.05