MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for January Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jul 11, 2025 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
| Tested Years | 37 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | |
| Closed Higher | 16 | 22 | 28 | 28 | 20 | 21 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 18 | |
| Exceeded High | 15 | 21 | 27 | 22 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 17 | 17 | 12 | 12 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 94% | 95% | 96% | 79% | 70% | 95% | 92% | 77% | 81% | 60% | 67% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 12.11% | 10.10% | 8.69% | 8.36% | 11.01% | 8.88% | 10.99% | 11.27% | 8.77% | 10.78% | 9.15% | |
| Max Increase | 30.06% | 23.95% | 19.93% | 31.57% | 19.69% | 20.90% | 68.88% | 46.36% | 24.77% | 24.26% | 16.21% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 14 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -2.11% | -1.58% | -2.37% | -1.81% | -1.31% | -2.34% | -2.64% | -2.99% | -3.26% | -2.27% | -1.09% | |
| Max Decline | -9.54% | -13.11% | -9.96% | -5.44% | -5.66% | -13.78% | -14.17% | -13.14% | -13.15% | -5.97% | -3.13% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 3 | |
| 2025 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Not Yet | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
