MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		23	26	27	27	27	27	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher		8	14	20	18	15	13	19	15	16	13	12
Exceeded High		7	13	19	16	9	13	17	12	13	8	8
Scenario Percentage		88%	93%	95%	89%	60%	100%	89%	80%	81%	62%	67%
Avg Max Increase		12.19%	10.47%	8.48%	7.97%	11.71%	9.34%	12.06%	12.63%	8.54%	12.46%	11.66%
Max Increase		24.77%	19.42%	19.11%	31.57%	19.69%	20.90%	68.88%	46.36%	24.77%	34.22%	18.80%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	16	17	15	21	17	18	17	13	16	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.35%	-0.55%	-2.55%	-1.49%	-1.21%	-2.39%	-1.19%	-2.30%	-3.72%	-2.65%	-1.13%
Max Decline		-4.10%	-4.27%	-9.96%	-5.44%	-5.66%	-13.78%	-9.55%	-13.14%	-13.15%	-5.97%	-2.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	9	10	10	7	11	7	7	6	11	3
2010 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		23	26	27	27	27	27	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower		14	12	6	9	12	14	9	13	11	15	16
Penetrated Low		7	5	2	5	7	10	5	8	8	14	13
Scenario Percentage		50%	42%	33%	56%	58%	71%	56%	62%	73%	93%	81%
Avg Max Decline		13.54%	8.49%	7.15%	5.20%	7.92%	7.13%	12.82%	13.93%	16.27%	14.62%	11.65%
Max Decline		38.95%	24.21%	7.95%	8.93%	12.43%	18.49%	27.38%	47.12%	51.99%	52.69%	40.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	20	20	15	18	17	19	18	15	13
Avg Max Increase		-1.71%	-2.61%	-0.59%	-2.87%	-0.46%	-2.11%	-4.55%	-4.10%	-1.85%	-2.84%	-1.77%
Max Increase		-5.46%	-8.74%	-1.45%	-6.90%	-2.69%	-8.84%	-15.61%	-16.04%	-7.95%	-5.77%	-7.11%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	9	10	9	2	7	15	15	6	5	4
2010 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	No		No				Yes	No		Yes
High	65.67	64.55	56.92	62.84	62.67	69.69	76.74	74.66	77.43	74.39	82.58	81.67
Low	49.62	53.50	47.31	48.71	56.18	57.44	70.00	63.05	70.75	66.10	68.71	72.39
Close/Last	59.51	55.36	53.09	58.51	58.13	69.62	73.13	73.95	72.00	71.31	77.64	77.28