MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		21	24	25	25	25	25	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Higher		8	13	18	17	14	12	17	15	15	11	11
Exceeded High		7	12	17	15	8	12	15	12	12	7	7
Scenario Percentage		88%	92%	94%	88%	57%	100%	88%	80%	80%	64%	64%
Avg Max Increase		12.19%	10.37%	7.82%	8.40%	11.90%	9.63%	13.05%	12.63%	8.51%	11.22%	10.07%
Max Increase		24.77%	19.42%	18.25%	31.57%	19.69%	20.90%	68.88%	46.36%	24.77%	24.26%	16.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	15	17	16	22	18	20	17	13	16	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.35%	-0.47%	-2.59%	-1.60%	-1.43%	-1.44%	-1.36%	-2.30%	-3.91%	-2.70%	-1.20%
Max Decline		-4.10%	-4.27%	-9.96%	-5.44%	-5.66%	-5.74%	-9.55%	-13.14%	-13.15%	-5.97%	-2.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	10	10	11	8	10	7	7	5	9	4
2008 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		21	24	25	25	25	25	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Lower		12	11	6	8	11	13	9	11	10	15	15
Penetrated Low		5	5	2	5	7	9	5	7	8	14	12
Scenario Percentage		42%	45%	33%	63%	64%	69%	56%	64%	80%	93%	80%
Avg Max Decline		15.27%	8.49%	7.15%	5.20%	7.92%	7.25%	12.82%	14.75%	16.27%	14.19%	11.07%
Max Decline		38.95%	24.21%	7.95%	8.93%	12.43%	18.49%	27.38%	47.12%	51.99%	47.46%	33.90%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	19	20	20	15	18	17	18	18	15	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.74%	-2.61%	-0.59%	-2.87%	-0.46%	-1.36%	-4.55%	-4.21%	-1.85%	-2.84%	-1.72%
Max Increase		-3.67%	-8.74%	-1.45%	-6.90%	-2.69%	-6.35%	-15.61%	-16.04%	-7.95%	-5.77%	-7.11%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	9	10	9	2	4	15	15	6	5	4
2008 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes			Yes			Yes
Action		No				No			No			Yes
High	70.08	64.45	67.16	69.81	70.96	70.95	72.10	75.51	75.88	81.33	93.79	99.29
Low	66.32	56.25	61.50	64.29	68.10	67.30	68.04	71.30	68.20	71.45	77.09	88.45
Close/Last	67.01	62.91	67.16	69.81	70.43	68.00	71.63	75.40	71.83	79.58	93.27	88.71