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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Corn(CBOT) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   15 16 21 18 24 14 24 25 22 25 19
Exceeded High   11 11 12 17 16 11 21 22 18 24 13
Scenario Percentage   73% 69% 57% 94% 67% 79% 88% 88% 82% 96% 68%
Avg Max Increase   10.03% 10.35% 9.15% 10.39% 8.88% 11.53% 8.67% 8.11% 8.30% 7.79% 4.87%
Max Increase   29.37% 28.32% 31.72% 41.11% 19.40% 29.08% 20.38% 25.34% 30.76% 37.62% 11.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase   13 16 16 15 23 18 18 18 12 9 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.28% -2.24% -2.60% -2.55% -2.28% -3.12% -2.43% -1.84% -3.49% -2.09% -2.12%
Max Decline   -7.55% -6.51% -10.29% -9.20% -12.15% -8.72% -9.03% -5.24% -16.83% -10.93% -5.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 4 13 6 9 9 9 11 9 7 3
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes     Yes
Action       Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes     Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   29 29 24 27 20 30 20 20 22 20 26
Penetrated Low   27 24 16 22 17 24 16 18 14 17 13
Scenario Percentage   93% 83% 67% 81% 85% 80% 80% 90% 64% 85% 50%
Avg Max Decline   9.05% 7.51% 7.02% 6.60% 7.07% 5.64% 5.00% 6.46% 7.01% 6.56% 3.70%
Max Decline   14.71% 19.10% 36.47% 29.80% 26.70% 16.30% 15.55% 14.10% 18.47% 11.89% 9.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 20 15 22 14 13 16 19 16 10 10
Avg Max Increase   -2.70% -3.03% -1.12% -1.99% -1.73% -1.80% -1.86% -2.12% -2.62% -1.38% -1.67%
Max Increase   -14.41% -9.45% -3.88% -5.64% -5.93% -7.12% -4.64% -6.59% -5.02% -7.33% -4.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 11 4 13 9 8 9 10 10 5 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes       Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes     No       Yes Yes  
High 515.25 494.75 449.00 436.25 453.50 461.00 454.25 466.50 508.00 518.75 477.50 490.75
Low 486.75 436.00 424.50 414.25 426.00 422.25 432.75 434.25 456.75 469.00 442.00 447.50
Close/Last 487.00 444.25 427.00 428.25 450.75 434.50 439.75 465.75 493.00 469.50 457.25 467.25

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