MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Corn(CBOT) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	16	21	17	24	14	23	24	22	25	19
Exceeded High		12	11	12	16	16	10	20	21	18	24	14
Scenario Percentage		75%	69%	57%	94%	67%	71%	87%	88%	82%	96%	74%
Avg Max Increase		9.79%	10.35%	8.91%	10.90%	8.88%	11.13%	8.53%	8.25%	8.30%	7.79%	4.82%
Max Increase		29.37%	28.32%	31.72%	41.11%	19.40%	29.08%	20.38%	25.34%	30.76%	37.62%	11.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	16	16	16	23	16	18	18	12	9	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.14%	-2.24%	-2.99%	-2.68%	-2.28%	-3.31%	-2.45%	-1.84%	-3.49%	-2.09%	-1.98%
Max Decline		-7.55%	-6.51%	-10.29%	-9.20%	-12.15%	-8.72%	-9.03%	-5.24%	-16.83%	-10.93%	-5.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	4	13	7	9	9	9	11	9	7	3
2024 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes					Yes
Action			No			No					Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		28	29	24	28	20	30	21	21	22	20	26
Penetrated Low		26	24	16	23	17	24	17	19	14	16	13
Scenario Percentage		93%	83%	67%	82%	85%	80%	81%	90%	64%	80%	50%
Avg Max Decline		9.14%	7.51%	7.02%	6.56%	7.07%	5.64%	5.18%	6.69%	7.15%	6.61%	3.70%
Max Decline		14.71%	19.10%	36.47%	29.80%	26.70%	16.30%	15.55%	14.10%	18.47%	11.89%	9.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	15	22	14	13	16	19	16	10	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.76%	-3.03%	-1.12%	-2.11%	-1.73%	-1.80%	-1.79%	-2.13%	-2.54%	-1.01%	-1.67%
Max Increase		-14.41%	-9.45%	-3.88%	-5.64%	-5.93%	-7.12%	-4.64%	-6.59%	-5.02%	-5.66%	-4.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	11	4	12	9	8	8	10	9	5	3
2024 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet
High	551.00	637.75	587.50	542.50	513.25	528.75	505.75	504.75	483.75	459.50	448.00	444.50
Low	507.75	511.75	500.75	496.25	491.00	499.50	483.25	481.25	447.50	408.75	422.00	424.50
Close/Last	536.75	513.50	532.00	502.50	500.50	501.75	495.00	484.00	458.50	429.50	442.00	439.50