MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	14	21	17	23	15	22	25	23	24	19
Exceeded High		13	10	12	16	16	10	19	22	18	23	15
Scenario Percentage		81%	71%	57%	94%	70%	67%	86%	88%	78%	96%	79%
Avg Max Increase		9.61%	10.23%	9.08%	11.01%	8.74%	11.13%	8.02%	7.43%	7.50%	7.77%	4.71%
Max Increase		29.37%	28.32%	31.72%	41.11%	19.40%	29.08%	19.39%	16.47%	30.76%	37.35%	10.38%
Avg Days To Max Increase		12	15	16	17	23	16	17	19	12	7	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.11%	-1.98%	-2.80%	-2.40%	-2.09%	-3.31%	-2.33%	-1.71%	-3.60%	-1.86%	-1.73%
Max Decline		-7.55%	-6.51%	-10.29%	-9.20%	-12.15%	-8.72%	-9.03%	-5.24%	-16.83%	-10.93%	-5.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	4	13	8	9	9	9	12	10	8	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		28	31	24	28	21	29	22	20	21	21	26
Penetrated Low		26	26	14	23	18	23	17	18	13	17	14
Scenario Percentage		93%	84%	58%	82%	86%	79%	77%	90%	62%	81%	54%
Avg Max Decline		9.83%	7.14%	7.40%	6.98%	7.17%	5.45%	4.37%	6.04%	7.41%	6.50%	3.57%
Max Decline		16.62%	19.10%	36.47%	29.80%	26.70%	16.30%	15.38%	14.10%	18.47%	11.89%	8.53%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	19	15	21	14	12	14	20	16	9	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.08%	-2.63%	-1.11%	-2.02%	-1.66%	-1.81%	-1.81%	-2.32%	-2.59%	-1.19%	-1.46%
Max Increase		-13.32%	-9.45%	-3.88%	-4.86%	-5.93%	-7.12%	-4.64%	-6.59%	-5.02%	-5.66%	-4.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	10	4	12	9	8	8	10	10	5	2
2021 Contract Condition			Yes
Action			Yes
High	360.75	370.00	379.00	379.50	397.00	422.75	441.75	484.75	553.75	572.00	564.25	746.25
Low	350.00	341.50	345.00	339.75	367.75	392.25	400.25	418.00	480.25	523.25	529.25	549.75
Close/Last	357.25	367.50	346.00	374.00	393.50	406.00	429.00	483.25	547.50	547.50	564.25	740.00