MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Corn(CBOT) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		15	15	21	17	22	14	21	25	24	23	19
Exceeded High		12	11	11	15	15	9	18	21	18	22	15
Scenario Percentage		80%	73%	52%	88%	68%	64%	86%	84%	75%	96%	79%
Avg Max Increase		10.14%	10.98%	8.72%	10.93%	8.03%	9.13%	7.45%	7.57%	7.50%	6.51%	4.92%
Max Increase		29.37%	28.32%	31.72%	41.11%	17.13%	28.57%	19.39%	16.47%	30.76%	26.04%	11.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase		10	16	15	16	22	15	18	20	12	7	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.57%	-1.83%	-2.90%	-2.54%	-2.13%	-3.39%	-2.43%	-1.69%	-3.60%	-1.82%	-1.58%
Max Decline		-4.17%	-6.51%	-10.29%	-9.20%	-12.15%	-8.72%	-9.03%	-5.24%	-16.83%	-10.93%	-5.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	3	14	8	10	10	10	12	10	8	2
2020 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes
Action					Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		29	30	24	28	22	30	23	20	21	22	26
Penetrated Low		26	25	14	23	19	24	17	18	13	18	14
Scenario Percentage		90%	83%	58%	82%	86%	80%	74%	90%	62%	82%	54%
Avg Max Decline		9.83%	7.36%	7.40%	6.98%	7.33%	5.55%	4.37%	6.04%	7.41%	6.24%	3.77%
Max Decline		16.62%	19.10%	36.47%	29.80%	26.70%	16.30%	15.38%	14.10%	18.47%	11.89%	9.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	19	15	21	14	12	14	20	16	10	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.08%	-2.71%	-1.11%	-2.02%	-1.55%	-1.82%	-1.81%	-2.32%	-2.59%	-1.20%	-1.58%
Max Increase		-13.32%	-9.45%	-3.88%	-4.86%	-5.93%	-7.12%	-4.64%	-6.59%	-5.02%	-5.66%	-4.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	10	4	12	9	8	8	10	10	5	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	464.50	476.50	471.75	439.00	405.25	416.50	406.00	398.50	398.75	389.50	386.75	343.25
Low	388.25	433.00	425.75	384.00	374.75	396.00	378.75	377.50	382.25	365.75	332.00	300.25
Close/Last	452.75	443.00	426.00	390.00	405.25	404.75	385.75	394.75	386.50	368.25	340.75	311.50