MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	16	21	18	21	14	21	25	25	24	19
Exceeded High		13	12	11	16	14	10	18	22	18	23	15
Scenario Percentage		81%	75%	52%	89%	67%	71%	86%	88%	72%	96%	79%
Avg Max Increase		14.35%	12.56%	8.72%	10.96%	8.35%	9.67%	8.95%	7.89%	7.50%	6.30%	4.92%
Max Increase		64.95%	28.32%	31.72%	41.11%	17.13%	28.57%	28.07%	16.47%	30.76%	26.04%	11.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase		11	17	15	16	23	16	18	20	12	7	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.67%	-2.65%	-2.90%	-3.04%	-2.27%	-3.22%	-2.29%	-1.73%	-3.60%	-1.76%	-1.58%
Max Decline		-4.17%	-10.75%	-10.29%	-9.93%	-12.15%	-8.72%	-9.03%	-5.24%	-16.83%	-10.93%	-5.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	6	14	9	10	9	9	12	10	7	2
2018 Contract Condition									Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action									Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		27	29	24	27	23	30	23	20	20	21	26
Penetrated Low		24	24	14	23	19	24	17	18	12	17	15
Scenario Percentage		89%	83%	58%	85%	83%	80%	74%	90%	60%	81%	58%
Avg Max Decline		9.89%	7.16%	7.96%	6.98%	7.80%	6.38%	5.58%	6.35%	6.14%	6.23%	4.32%
Max Decline		16.62%	19.10%	36.47%	29.80%	26.70%	22.00%	24.08%	19.54%	13.19%	11.33%	10.93%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	20	14	21	15	12	14	19	14	9	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.96%	-2.70%	-1.13%	-2.02%	-1.62%	-1.84%	-1.82%	-2.38%	-2.44%	-1.35%	-1.21%
Max Increase		-13.32%	-9.45%	-3.88%	-4.86%	-5.93%	-7.12%	-4.64%	-6.59%	-4.87%	-5.66%	-4.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	10	4	12	9	8	8	10	9	7	2
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	411.25	422.00	430.00	406.00	382.00	377.75	374.00	368.50	370.25	384.75	395.25	395.75
Low	398.25	390.25	396.25	364.75	366.00	365.00	357.00	355.00	353.75	364.25	369.25	372.00
Close/Last	407.00	407.00	401.75	377.75	376.25	368.25	363.75	359.00	369.50	382.00	387.75	392.50