MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	17	24	17	21	16	22	22	24	24	19
Exceeded High		13	13	14	14	14	11	19	19	18	23	16
Scenario Percentage		81%	76%	58%	82%	67%	69%	86%	86%	75%	96%	84%
Avg Max Increase		14.20%	12.84%	8.03%	11.88%	8.11%	10.05%	8.65%	8.45%	7.56%	6.22%	5.77%
Max Increase		64.95%	28.32%	31.72%	41.11%	17.13%	28.57%	28.07%	16.47%	30.76%	26.04%	19.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase		10	17	15	16	22	16	18	22	12	7	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.56%	-2.51%	-2.63%	-3.36%	-2.08%	-2.85%	-2.43%	-1.84%	-3.46%	-1.60%	-1.42%
Max Decline		-4.17%	-10.75%	-10.29%	-9.93%	-12.15%	-8.72%	-9.03%	-5.24%	-16.83%	-10.93%	-5.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	6	13	10	11	8	11	13	8	7	3
2014 Contract Condition				Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				No					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		26	28	21	28	23	28	22	23	21	21	26
Penetrated Low		23	22	14	22	18	21	16	21	13	16	15
Scenario Percentage		88%	79%	67%	79%	78%	75%	73%	91%	62%	76%	58%
Avg Max Decline		9.89%	6.94%	7.47%	7.22%	7.69%	6.61%	5.81%	5.98%	6.10%	6.41%	4.19%
Max Decline		18.43%	19.10%	36.47%	29.80%	26.70%	22.00%	24.08%	19.54%	13.19%	11.33%	10.93%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	19	16	23	15	13	15	18	15	10	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.08%	-2.49%	-1.27%	-2.25%	-1.87%	-1.59%	-1.90%	-2.00%	-2.10%	-1.32%	-1.13%
Max Increase		-13.32%	-9.45%	-3.88%	-4.86%	-5.93%	-3.76%	-4.64%	-6.59%	-4.87%	-5.66%	-4.31%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	9	4	11	10	8	9	9	6	8	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	588.00	589.50	547.00	527.50	513.00	470.00	458.50	449.00	443.00	465.00	503.75	519.00
Low	531.00	528.75	492.00	467.50	461.75	446.75	428.25	426.75	414.50	438.75	464.00	485.50
Close/Last	582.75	529.25	499.25	502.50	462.25	447.50	432.75	430.25	439.50	463.50	502.00	514.00