MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	37	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	15	15	22	15	21	19	22	22	22	24	18
Exceeded High	12	11	14	12	14	13	18	17	16	23	14
Scenario Percentage	80%	73%	64%	80%	67%	68%	82%	77%	73%	96%	78%
Avg Max Increase	12.94%	11.30%	5.96%	10.53%	7.53%	9.12%	8.29%	8.08%	7.37%	6.11%	6.15%
Max Increase	64.95%	23.43%	11.88%	41.11%	17.13%	28.57%	28.07%	16.47%	30.76%	26.04%	19.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase	10	17	15	16	20	16	18	23	12	8	8
Avg Max Decline	-0.61%	-2.74%	-2.68%	-2.91%	-1.18%	-1.85%	-2.34%	-1.99%	-2.51%	-1.51%	-0.93%
Max Decline	-4.17%	-10.75%	-10.29%	-9.93%	-2.88%	-7.94%	-9.03%	-5.24%	-9.53%	-10.93%	-5.25%
Avg Days to Max Decline	4	7	13	11	12	9	11	15	8	7	3
2009 Contract Condition	Yes						Yes			Yes
Action	No						Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	37	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	22	30	23	30	23	25	22	23	23	21	27
Penetrated Low	20	23	16	24	16	18	16	22	15	15	19
Scenario Percentage	91%	77%	70%	80%	70%	72%	73%	96%	65%	71%	70%
Avg Max Decline	9.78%	6.28%	6.68%	6.57%	7.85%	6.65%	4.99%	5.76%	5.23%	6.78%	10.29%
Max Decline	18.43%	19.10%	36.47%	29.80%	26.70%	22.00%	24.08%	19.54%	13.19%	11.33%	41.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	20	15	23	16	14	16	17	16	11	12
Avg Max Increase	-2.21%	-1.86%	-1.19%	-2.15%	-1.84%	-1.53%	-1.65%	-1.69%	-1.86%	-1.35%	-2.36%
Max Increase	-13.32%	-9.45%	-3.88%	-4.86%	-5.93%	-3.33%	-4.64%	-4.18%	-4.53%	-5.66%	-12.57%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	9	4	11	9	8	10	7	5	8	4
2009 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	822.00	808.75	658.00	610.00	530.00	451.00	433.50	439.50	400.00	406.00	407.50
Low	646.50	594.50	532.00	517.75	391.50	364.00	315.75	369.75	350.50	344.50	360.50
Close/Last	781.00	640.00	616.25	518.50	430.75	377.25	417.75	390.25	359.00	404.75	396.25