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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Corn(CBOT) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 20 16 15 21 18 24 16 22 26 23
Exceeded High   19 17 12 9 12 17 14 11 19 20 18
Scenario Percentage   86% 85% 75% 60% 57% 94% 58% 69% 86% 77% 78%
Avg Max Increase   11.25% 10.67% 10.31% 11.81% 9.49% 10.89% 9.70% 10.68% 8.58% 7.34% 3.36%
Max Increase   56.84% 45.67% 31.26% 29.19% 32.23% 42.96% 20.46% 29.99% 21.15% 27.80% 14.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 13 11 16 16 15 25 17 17 7 5
Avg Max Decline   -3.63% -2.65% -0.65% -2.04% -3.05% -2.75% -2.68% -3.32% -2.29% -1.44% -1.25%
Max Decline   -7.89% -5.76% -5.30% -6.62% -11.20% -9.57% -12.56% -9.73% -5.89% -3.09% -5.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 7 3 5 14 7 10 8 8 4 3
2025 Contract Condition           Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action           Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 25 29 29 24 27 21 28 23 19 22
Penetrated Low   23 23 27 24 18 22 19 23 18 13 8
Scenario Percentage   100% 92% 93% 83% 75% 81% 90% 82% 78% 68% 36%
Avg Max Decline   6.99% 9.81% 9.69% 7.91% 6.81% 6.96% 7.81% 6.10% 5.41% 5.86% 2.94%
Max Decline   15.47% 22.39% 16.27% 19.56% 37.09% 30.45% 27.13% 16.47% 16.29% 11.99% 5.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 21 18 19 16 21 15 13 15 14 6
Avg Max Increase   -3.56% -4.41% -2.96% -3.25% -1.25% -2.10% -1.88% -1.88% -1.69% -1.66% -1.22%
Max Increase   -17.82% -19.76% -15.05% -10.06% -4.10% -6.05% -5.47% -7.27% -5.15% -6.87% -2.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase   13 11 7 10 5 11 9 10 8 7 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes       Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes     No       Yes
High 493.50 490.00 508.25 488.00 440.00 425.50 444.50 452.25 447.75 459.00 497.50 504.50
Low 469.50 472.25 478.75 426.00 413.50 403.75 416.00 414.00 425.50 428.25 449.25 453.00
Close/Last 490.00 483.50 479.50 434.75 415.75 419.00 441.25 426.00 433.00 458.50 482.00 453.50

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