MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Corn(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	22	17	16	21	16	22	16	18	25	24
Exceeded High		19	18	14	11	11	15	13	9	15	19	18
Scenario Percentage		86%	82%	82%	69%	52%	94%	59%	56%	83%	76%	75%
Avg Max Increase		12.09%	11.41%	12.27%	11.94%	8.86%	11.50%	8.71%	8.07%	7.57%	6.18%	2.78%
Max Increase		56.84%	45.67%	35.71%	29.19%	32.23%	42.96%	17.55%	29.33%	19.43%	16.19%	8.20%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	12	12	18	15	15	24	14	16	7	6
Avg Max Decline		-3.38%	-2.35%	-0.50%	-2.75%	-3.37%	-2.73%	-2.52%	-3.63%	-2.17%	-1.25%	-1.29%
Max Decline		-7.89%	-5.76%	-5.30%	-11.73%	-11.20%	-9.57%	-12.56%	-9.73%	-5.89%	-3.09%	-5.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	6	3	7	15	7	10	9	8	5	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes			No			No	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	23	28	29	24	29	23	28	27	20	21
Penetrated Low		22	21	25	24	16	24	21	23	21	14	8
Scenario Percentage		96%	91%	89%	83%	67%	83%	91%	82%	78%	70%	38%
Avg Max Decline		7.39%	9.61%	10.35%	7.59%	7.19%	7.67%	8.35%	6.83%	5.60%	6.12%	2.67%
Max Decline		15.47%	22.39%	16.96%	19.56%	37.09%	30.45%	27.13%	21.39%	24.80%	20.24%	4.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	20	17	19	16	20	16	13	15	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-3.25%	-3.79%	-2.14%	-2.89%	-1.33%	-2.09%	-1.80%	-1.90%	-1.69%	-1.75%	-1.35%
Max Increase		-17.82%	-16.67%	-14.97%	-10.06%	-4.10%	-4.91%	-5.47%	-7.27%	-5.15%	-6.87%	-3.39%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	10	6	10	5	10	8	10	8	6	3
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	No			Yes		Yes
High	418.50	425.50	437.00	425.50	398.75	398.75	381.25	390.50	390.00	387.75	384.50	381.75
Low	398.75	403.25	419.25	369.50	362.25	368.00	354.75	368.50	367.25	372.50	371.00	361.25
Close/Last	418.25	423.50	422.50	381.25	397.00	377.25	368.00	375.75	377.75	375.00	376.50	362.00